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Chaturanga

~ statecraft, strategy, society, and Σοφíα

Chaturanga

Tag Archives: Ali Khamenei

If I Forget Thee, O Jerusalem…

06 Wed Dec 2017

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Israel, Middle East

≈ Comments Off on If I Forget Thee, O Jerusalem…

Tags

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Ali Khamenei, Egypt, Fatah, HaBayit HaYehudi, Hamas, Iran, Israel, Jerusalem, Jordan, King Abdullah, Manuel Hassassian, Mavi Marmara, Mohammad bin Salman, Palestine, Psalm 137, Reuven Rivlin, Saudi Arabia, terrorism, Tzipi Hotovely, United States

“If I forget thee, O Jerusalem,” sang the Israelites, “may my right hand forget her cunning, may my tongue cling to the roof of my mouth.” That was approximately 2,600 years ago during the Babylonian captivity, a memory preserved in Psalm 137. To most Israelis, US president Donald Trump’s decision to declare his country’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was simply a late awakening to a most basic fact.

To the rest of the world, Trump’s actions, as always, were reason for hyperbole and haranguing. The spokesman for the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said the US was “plunging the region and the world into a fire with no end in sight,” and the Palestinian envoy to the UK, Manuel Hassassian, added, “He is declaring war in the Middle East, he is declaring war against 1.5 billion Muslims.” As can be expected, criticism has been sharpest from Muslim states and with a little more diplomatic decorum from Europe, Russia, and China. In addition, analysts of all stripes have been all over print and the airwaves predicting great upheaval in the Middle East and the derailment of decades of patient US diplomacy.

It is unclear, however, how much of the breast-beating is warranted. The primary argument against Trump’s declaration seems to be that it will cause unrest in the Middle East. Yet when in the past several decades has something not caused unrest in the region? What is the guarantee that there will be no violence in Gaza if the United States desists from the announcement? Can anyone even distinguish the chaos due to the US declaration from the upheaval, tumult, riot, violence, or disturbance that are routine to the region, and at that point, does it really matter?

The countries of the Levant are swirling in a whirlpool of chaos, instability, and terrorism that has been largely of their own making for almost a decade. Arab street decries any move by the international community that may benefit Israel as detrimental to peace and stability, implicitly encouraging a complete blockade and destruction of the Jewish state.

It must also be remembered, as Tzipi Hotovely recently alluded to, that Israel has constantly lived in a state of undeclared war. Any more unrest that is promised by the terrorists of the Middle East will hardly be noticed in the quotidian deadly exchanges with Hamas, Hezbollah, the occasional Syrians, and other armed thugs.

Another point of criticism of the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital has been that it violates international law – Jerusalem is seen as occupied territory and any change of demographics on disputed land or official recognition to it is illegal. However, this fails to recognise that the United States has merely recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel but has not defined the boundaries of the city – that is still left to the Israelis and Palestinians in future peace negotiations.

One might argue that Washington’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel muddies its role as an impartial arbitrator. Yet that ship, at least in Arab eyes, has already sailed – no one views the Great Satan as a neutral judge. What Arabs and Israelis both count on is the diplomatic, economic, and military wherewithal the United States is capable of bringing to bear upon the side that violates a peace agreement.

What will Trump’s announcement have on the other states in the region? Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei has warned of dire consequences but it would be an unusual day when the Islamic Republic does not threaten to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Trump’s announcement may force the Palestinians to show strength through terror and this might fray relations between Fatah and Hamas that had only recently been mended with much difficulty. However, Jerusalem does not recognise any Palestinian player as a genuine partner for peace – translation: dial down the terrorism – and there is no missed opportunity here.

Ankara has threatened to cut off diplomatic ties with Israel but relations have already been frigid between the two American allies after the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010. Egypt and Jordan, the two Arab states Israel has peace treaties with, have also not reacted positively to the news. Yet it is not sure what either Abdel Fattah el-Sisi or King Abdullah will or can do as neither country has had a particularly good past with the Palestinians.

The real question is about Saudi Arabia’s reaction to this all. Traditionally, Riyadh has stoked the Palestinian crisis periodically and refused to recognise the Jewish state. Recent rumours, however, have left several commentators murmuring about a clandestine US-Israel-Saudi Arabia alliance to contain Iran’s expanded influence in the Middle East after a successful turn of events in Iraq and Syria. The whispers became even louder after Trump tacitly supported a great purge in the Saudi royal family by the crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman. This has always seemed far-fetched to me and Washington’s recent dousing of Saudi ambitions in Lebanon – Saad Hariri’s removal – leaves one thinking that there are still some kinks in that plan.

More importantly, there were even rumours that Mohammad bin Salman had secretly flown to Israel to meet with its leaders to discuss a Palestinian peace plan, a normalisation of relations, and Iran. Such delicate ventures may be beyond the crown prince in view of his streak of recklessness on display in dealing with other crises such as Yemen. While there is indeed a temporary alignment of interests between Israel and Saudi Arabia, one bête noire does not a rapprochement make.

It is also unlikely, if such a triumvirate ever existed, that the topic of Jerusalem would not have cropped up. In that case, despite Riyadh’s official dismay at the US decision, it will be interesting to see what it actually does. Yet what about the impact on US ties with its other allies in the region such as Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates? Regardless of what State Department mandarins think, this administration has made it quite clear that American allies around the globe have not done enough. It is not improbable that Trump prefers to deal with Riyadh alone and coerce the “smaller” allies with the former’s help.

Could the Jerusalem declaration be part of Trump’s personal “charm?” The president is enveloped in legal battles and his administration has yet to be fully staffed or retain any member for a decent period. Trump had also promised during his election campaign that he would recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move the US embassy to the city. The Jerusalem declaration not only distracts his opponents from the domestic quagmire but also delivers on a campaign promise, thus reinforcing his image to his base, perhaps, as the anti-politician. It is also possible that Trump is using his declaration as a bargaining chip to force the Palestinians to the negotiating table, the message being that there is much to lose by holding out.

Ultimately, the issue is more religious than national as Hassassian’s statement clearly reveals. As the Oslo Accords and the failed Camp David Summit in 2000 demonstrated, Jerusalem is not a negotiable issue for either side. The Arabs want to control their holy site, the Haram al-Sharif; the Jews remind us that when that was the case before 1967, they were not given access to their holy sites. More than geopolitics, it is this facet that will shape the reaction of the Arab states to American recognition of Jerusalem as the Israelis capital – it would be political suicide to even sit idly by as the United States moved its embassy to the disputed city.

It is altogether a different matter to discuss Palestine’s right over Jerusalem or even its own existence, given that it has never existed as a state – before 1967, the West Bank, along with Jerusalem, was occupied by Jordan and the Gaza Strip by Egypt. The Palestinian government Cairo set up in the Strip, ironically, was not recognised by Jordan.

Israel’s reaction to Trump’s announcement has so far been muted but the bubbling joy underneath the uncharacteristically nonchalant surface is palpable. The most reaction came from Naftali Bennett, the leader of the HaBayit HaYehudi and the Minister for both, Education and Diaspora Affairs, who is said to have written to the US president, “thank you from the bottom of my heart for your commitment and intention to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.” Otherwise, the government has generally been quiet. The Israeli commentariat, however, has been effusive, Caroline Glick calling the decision 70 years late but welcome and Arsen Ostrovsky reiterating that Jerusalem is the “eternal & undivided capital of the State of Israel and the spiritual homeland of the Jewish people!” Most Israelis probably relate to the words of HaAvoda leader Avi Gabbay. When asked about the imbroglio that had resulted from Trump’s announcement he replied, “When my parents came from Morocco to Jerusalem, I can assure you they didn’t check the State Department website to see if it’s the capital or not. They knew Jerusalem was the capital and just came.”

But what does Trump’s declaration really matter? Jerusalem is the seat of the Israeli government as President Reuven Rivlin remarked, and no military in the Arab world is capable of removing them from it. No borders change on the ground and no one falls one the wrong side of a line; territories are not swapped. Is the whole drama not purely symbolic? Perhaps, but society is not so cynical yet that symbols have lost their value. And in the Middle East, few symbols are bigger than the City of David.

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Iran in the Voting Booth

14 Fri Jun 2013

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Iran, Middle East

≈ Comments Off on Iran in the Voting Booth

Tags

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ali Khamenei, elections, Guardian Council of the Constitution, Hassan Rouhani, Hezbollah, Iran, Mohamed Reza Pahlavi, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohammad Khatami, nuclear, Saeed Jalili, Syria

Iran goes to the polls today and observers wait with bated breath for the result, an odd situation considering that despite regular elections, Iran is not truly a democracy. Iran’s ‘elections’ are rigged from the start – only candidates approved by the Shora-ye Negahban-e Qanun-e Assassi, the Guardian Council of the Constitution, are allowed to stand, and the results are often unpredictable and followed by accusations of rigging.

At 08 00, Tehran time, 66,000 polling stations opened across the country for over 50 million people to choose from six presidential candidates, and 207,000 local council seats. Polling remained open until 22 00 across Iran and until 23 00 in Tehran due to long lines. Voter turnout has been rumoured to be above 75%. Over 450 foreign journalists covered the elections.

Opinion polls conducted yesterday indicate that Hassan Rouhani, a law doctorate from Glasgow Caledonian University (though some doubts have been expressed), is the favourite with 38% of the respondents and Tehran’s mayor, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, second with 25%. Rouhani, endorsed by former presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, is seen as the best moderate choice against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s man, Saeed Jalili.

Yet whoever wins the elections, little is likely to change. No candidate will question fundamental policies such as Iran’s support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria or its nuclear programme. Contrary to media wisdom, Iran is far more nationalist than it is Islamic, and issues vital to Iran’s strategic well-being will not be easily negotiated away. One reason for this is that the president of Iran does not have the final say in policy-making – according to the Iranian constitution, the office of the Supreme Leader is the most powerful in the land. The president is the second most powerful, more concerned with quotidian implementation of the constitution.

Another reason is that the vetting by the Guardian Council would have already disbarred any candidate liable to rock Iran’s foreign or security policy boats. A third reason is that any Western hope that a new president might be able to put the brakes on Iran’s nuclear programme, reduce its support to Syria, or abandon Hezbollah is pure fantasy – Iranians are far more nationalist than given credit for, usually misunderstood because of the media penchant for portraying them as crazed Islamic radicals. Tehran’s Islamic government, despite its public anti-Israel rhetoric, continued buying arms from Tel Aviv until 1992, and the nuclear programme that the ayatollahs are fiercely defending was initiated under Shah Mohamed Reza Pahlavi in 1957.

While the international community has little skin in Iran’s elections, the outcome will certainly affect ordinary Iranians. As Karim Sadjadpour notes, the president can play a major role in managing the economy, Iran’s “domestic atmosphere, and its international image… Whereas Khatami is most remembered for his slogan calling for a dialogue of civilizations, Ahmadinejad will be remembered for his Holocaust revisionism and diatribes against Israel.” In addition, a new president brings new personnel to important administrative positions in Tehran as well as in the provinces and they could change the present pervasive flavour of hopelessness in the country.

As polls closed around the country, the counting of votes has already begun in Iran. Sources tweeting from Iran indicate that Rouhani and Ghalibaf are the likely first and second placed candidates as the opinion polls predicted, but in a six-way election, no candidate is likely to acquire over 50% of the popular vote. Therefore, a second round run-off will be held on June 21 between the top two candidates in the first two rounds.

While many people do not believe in Rouhani, the backing of previous moderate presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami seems to have gained him many votes. Ghalibaf seems to have benefited from his tenure as the mayor of the capital city and his image as someone who might be able to improve the country’s economy. Iranian voters are also far too realistic to believe that Khamenei will refrain from tampering with the voting, and some still expect a last-minute Jalili surge.

An old Indian adage goes, “It takes two hands to clap.” If the new Iranian president is unable to persuade the West into reducing sanctions by conceding some ground on the nuclear issue, Iran’s top executive will be busy trying to woo countries to continue trading with Iran despite the US and EU stranglehold. The president’s power to influence the economy will be weakened, and to maintain control over a population already restless with the state of the economy, social reforms (if any are planned) will likely be put on the back burner. The winning candidate’s presidency could be defined more by countries like India, China, Korea, and Japan than by domestic factors. As the French seem to be fond of saying, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.


This post was published at Niti Central on June 15, 2013.

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