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Chaturanga

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Tag Archives: Donald Trump

The Emperor’s New Words

23 Wed Aug 2017

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Opinion and Response, United States

≈ Comments Off on The Emperor’s New Words

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Afghanistan, Donald Trump, India, ISIS, Pakistan, Taliban, terrorism, United States

President Donald Trump’s speech on Monday in which he declared a new American policy towards Afghanistan and South Asia is a postmodern masterpiece – you can choose beforehand how you want to respond and find something in the address to validate your decision. The announcement was awaited with some trepidation by US and South Asia observers, accustomed by now to the 45th US president’s unceasing social and policy gaffes, but there was ultimately little need for concern at the end of the night.

The new US policy jettisons the previous administration’s phased withdrawal that was beholden to the calendar and instead replaces it with a withdrawal policy that considers local political and security conditions. This is exactly what regional observers had stressed to Washington over the years but had been disregarded by a weary Foggy Bottom that was eager to extricate itself from a war that did not seem to have any end in sight. “The consequences of a rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable,” Trump declared, reminding everyone of the American experience in Iraq where too rapid a US withdrawal precipitated in part the resurgence of terrorism and the birth of ISIS; scheduled US withdrawal from Afghanistan had caused a similar upswing in the Taliban’s fortunes.

While the Obama administration was willing to saddle the region with America’s mess, Trump has gone back to the thinking of George W Bush: a secure, stable Afghanistan and US withdrawal were desirable but in that order. In that sense, Trump’s new direction is actually a return to an old plan that had been abandoned by his predecessor, Barack Obama. The reasoning, Trump said, was that the security threats in the region were immense and the United States sought an honorable and enduring outcome worthy of the sacrifices made.

Trump’s words will be met with approval in Afghanistan and India but with frustration back home. Despite near-total support among US parliamentarians (Senate: 98 ayes, 0 nays, 2 abstentions; House: 420 ayes, 1 nay, 10 abstentions), involvement in Afghanistan has steadily lost support among ordinary Americans over the years. Now, many would rather wash their hands off and forget about the whole misadventure than see it to an unforeseeable conclusion. The fundamental premise of Trump’s strategy – the use of military force to create a favorable political situation – was felt wanting by many the last time around.

Reminiscent of the George W Bush years, Trump emphasised that the United States was not there to “dictate to the Afghan people how to live or how to govern their own complex society” but as “a partner and a friend.” Afghans would be ultimately responsible for their own future, the United States did not want to build nations but kill terrorists.

More frustrating for many analysts was the lack of detail in the president’s Monday night address. Trump did not suggest what success in Afghanistan might look like nor did he mention any other details of how his administration was going to tame Afghanistan. To Delhi’s certain chagrin, who has consistently railed against the American concept of good and bad terrorists, the US president did not close the door on a negotiated settlement with the Taliban: “Someday,” Trump said, “after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban.” India can only hope that US estimation of what “effective military effort” entails would be maximal.

Trump’s address comes in the wake of news that the United States is redeploying 4,000 additional soldiers to join the 8,400 already present in the country. This number will be seen as insufficient in some quarters and as unnecessary in others.

What has probably attracted most comments about Trump’s Afghan policy is his statements on Pakistan. Calling out Pakistan’s practice of providing safe havens for terrorist activity on its soil while taking billions in US aid, the president warned that the United States can no longer remain passive on such perfidy. The threat is worse, Trump warned, because Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and its actions cause tense relations in the neighbourhood that may well spiral into conflict. With uncharacteristic grace, Trump softened his rebuke by recollecting the Islamic republic’s contributions and sacrifices to the mission in Afghanistan.

Trump’s public rebuke to Pakistan has no doubt gladdened hearts in Afghanistan and India, where the afterbirth of Indian independence is seen as the greatest instigator of terrorism in its neighbouring realms. Peace in Afghanistan, many academics, bureaucrats, and politicians – from the United States as well as India and Afghanistan – have repeatedly stressed, can be achieved only after Pakistan has been effectively dealt with.

There is no cause for optimism, however. Trump is not the first US president to criticise Pakistan – and there have been countless other officials and analysts – for its links to terrorism and extremism and will unlikely be the last. Obama did the same – multiple times – and Bush ’43, Bill Clinton, and George HW Bush were all troubled about Islamabad’s ties to the Taliban and its support for terrorists in Kashmir. None of this concern manifested itself in any concrete manner and the United States continued to call Pakistan an ally in the global war on terror. Trump’s own flip-flop on China from campaign to presidency gives little reassurance that this time will be different.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Trump’s speech was his call upon India to do more in Afghanistan economically. In the past, the United States has usually sought a greater Indian military role in Central Asia but Trump’s call is a rare exception. Delhi’s military aloofness from Afghanistan has been criticised by many, myself included, in the past but it has been active in Afghanistan’s social and political recovery. Since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, India has extended over $3 billion in aid to Afghanistan, making it the fifth-largest donor to the country. Delhi has built roads, schools, hospitals, dams, and other vital infrastructure in its war-ravaged neighbour. The US president’s criticism of India in this regard is therefore puzzling.

What has jarred some observers, at least on Twitter, is Trump’s blatant and crass linking of Indian economic contributions to Afghanistan to the trade surplus it runs with the United States. The US president’s penchant of seeing the world through a prism of economic transactionality notwithstanding, it is unclear what the Trump administration’s larger economic role for India in Afghanistan specifically entails beyond the South Asian country’s already generous efforts.

What was left out of the Trump blueprint for Afghanistan is as interesting as what was said. One word the president did not mention at all is Islam, either as provocation or as platitude. The omission is striking because one of the first moves of this new US presidency was to restrict the entry of Muslims from certain countries into the United States. Although Pakistan was not in that original list, US visas have become harder to obtain even for legitimate visitors such as the Afghan robotics team in July.

A more consequential absence is China, widely accepted as Pakistan’s new godfather. Although the Trump White House is yet to publicly formulate how it intends to win Islamabad’s cooperation, it is unlikely that any coercion will succeed without some assistance from Beijing. And succour will not be coming from China, who has already proven unhelpful over North Korea, and feels threatened by Washington’s build-up of India and challenged by American proxies in the South China Sea. Although Beltway wisdom has been keen on impressing upon the president the seriousness of the Russian threat, China appears to be the one stuck in America’s craw.

Trump’s speech on Monday marks no new direction for American policy towards Afghanistan though it might still be celebrated as slightly more sensible than the earlier one to hie. As with all US presidents, it will be interesting to watch how Trump squares the Pakistani circle, especially now with China on stage. While success is doubtful, India and Afghanistan can at least hope that US policies will increase the pressure on Pakistan – a better alternative to sitting back and doing nothing.

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What Does Donald Trump Mean For India?

10 Thu Nov 2016

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in India, South Asia, United States

≈ Comments Off on What Does Donald Trump Mean For India?

Tags

Donald Trump, economy, India, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, terrorism, United States

​Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections came as a total surprise not just for his opponent, Hillary Clinton, but even many of his supporters. If rumours are to be believed, Trump himself was in a subdued mood the whole evening until Florida turned in his favour. News of his success has been met with what can only be described as a meltdown among his detractors across the political spectrum. To be fair, Trump is certainly not the first unqualified occupant of the Oval Office; he may not even be the least qualified. The reason we feel his victory to be an affront to civilisation is that he is boorish, insouciantly and publicly. Trump is an indication of all that is broken with America, not in just that people would vote for him but that they would be angry enough with the ‘establishment’ to even consider such an obviously unfit character.

Given the United States’ military and economic reach, Trump’s victory will undoubtedly affect the world but thankfully less so than ordinary Americans. The question in this part of the world is, how will a Trump presidency affect India?

With its quasi-pivot to Asia, the United States has been heavily involved with several countries in India’s vicinity. Washington’s ties with Delhi have also gone from strength to strength since the George W Bush administration. Despite ebbs and flows, an Indo-US partnership has become a bipartisan issue. Nonetheless, Delhi and Washington have had difficulty seeing eye-to-eye on several points of mutual interest due to differing priorities. There is room for cautious optimism that Indo-US goals will align further under President Trump.

Trump is probably the first tenant of the White House who has had no experience whatsoever in public office, be it as a small town mayor, in the military, or elsewhere. As such, he comes to office with no ideological baggage – one wonders if he has even seriously thought about some of America’s challenges to have definitive views on them. Even during the primaries and campaign, the then presidential candidate’s responses to questions could only be described as abstract expressionism. In such an environment, it is difficult to predict what policies Trump will pursue.

There have been, however, a couple of motifs that have been consistent in his messaging. For example, he has repeatedly hinted at mending relations with Russia. According to Trump, the United States has been fighting an old Cold War they understand rather than the new Cold War they are in with China on which they are yet to get a grip. This bodes well for Delhi because it stops Vladimir Putin from being nudged into the embrace of Xi Jinping. Additionally, it allows India greater room in proposing important projects like the International North-South Trade Corridor that need Moscow’s support. A less antagonised Russian bear may even prove to be a useful ally against the Taliban, the ISI, and ISIS in Afghanistan.

On Pakistan, Trump has promised a far tougher stand but he will be the first American president to deliver on such a promise. Despite several scholars disproving the mistaken American belief that the US ‘needs’ Pakistan in that region, influential elements in the US government have been reluctant to jettison Islamabad even after many provocations. While a realistic US appraisal of Pakistan is something to look forward to, its historical probability is low.

There is a concern that the United States will shun their alliance responsibilities under Trump. This has been the indication with not just NATO but also in East Asia. However, the president-elect called the South Korean premier soon after the election results were confirmed to assure her of America’s continued support. In all likelihood, Trump would just like to see America’s allies pull their weight a bit more. This is a complaint Washington has had for a long time, though what exactly pulling their weight would entail in terms of increased independence from alliance policies was never clear.

Trump’s hawkish views on China reinforce the belief that he will not abandon US allies in the region. Admittedly, he has veered away from the traditional US course of discouraging independent nuclear arsenals. Yet this would also require willingness from the other side to embark on such an ambitious and politically fraught programme, something both sides may be able to ultimately avoid.

The future of trade pacts such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and TPIP are also unsure. They have been on weak legs even before the US election season but the incoming president’s hostility to them is well known. He would either let negotiations lapse or at best reopen the technical aspects of the treaty for further discussions, thereby punting the TPP’s coming into force down a few years until the end of his term or into his second term. Either way, this is good tidings for India, who would lose billions standing outside the pact. It allows Delhi’s mandarins time to strategize a response, be it via joining the trade pact or bracing for the fallout by negotiating free trade agreements of its own.

Another area of concern is Trump’s belief that Iran got off too lightly in the nuclear deal negotiated last year. He has done both, threatened to tear up the agreement and police it closely too. If Iran is baited out of the deal by an obstructionist Trump White House, it is not sure how much support from the world community further sanctions on Iran will have. This could get thorny for India but this is not a purely Trump problem – Republicans have been saying similar things ever since negotiations began. India will have to persuade its American partner of the wisdom of restraint and the favourable ripples it could have in other hotspots such as Syria.

The most visible feature of Indo-US relations – arms sales and joint military exercises – will most certainly not go wanting. Defence stocks are up in the United States after Trump’s victory as the budgetary cuts enacted by his predecessor are thought to be on the chopping block. Foreign sales will make domestic defence spending more affordable and India is keen to modernise its military. Beyond the monetary aspect, it also makes little sense for the United States to plan a more robust policy in East Asia while discouraging local partners to take a more proactive role in what will always primarily be their security. Washington’s most reliable partners will be those most concerned and powerless in the face of China’s rise, the states around the Indo-Pacific Ocean rim and warmer relations with Russia will not be of much use here.

Perhaps the greatest tussle will be over the economy, but that is also a mixed bag – while Trump has promised to curb immigration and slash the H1-B skilled worker visas, he has also called India a land of economic opportunity and even invested in some real estate in the country. Trump will, like previous administrations, pressure India on opening up its economy further and doing more to protect intellectual property. The question is how much effort he will put into this challenging aspect of Indo-US relations.

All this assumes, of course, a certain modicum of rationality, a desire to deliver on election promises made, and a sound staff probably taken from the Bush years. But Trump is a neophyte to this stage and all bets could be off – in which case much of this speculative exercise could be just gibberish and we are in for a very bumpy ride over the next four years.


This post appeared on FirstPost on November 14, 2016.

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