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Chaturanga

~ statecraft, strategy, society, and Σοφíα

Chaturanga

Tag Archives: Gaza

Mischief in Gaza

15 Tue May 2018

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Israel, Middle East

≈ Comments Off on Mischief in Gaza

Tags

counter-terrorism, Gaza, Hamas, IDF, Israel, Israeli Defence Forces, Kerem Shalom, Nakba, Palestine, terrorism

It has been a bus couple of weeks in the world: the two Koreas are finally talking peace, the United States hopes to talk Pyongyang into at least curtailing if not abandoning its nuclear programme, US president Donald Trump has abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action his predecessor signed with Iran to bring its nuclear programme under greater international scrutiny, the US embassy in Israel shifted from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and elections were held in the Indian state of Karnataka that many see as make-or-break for the Congress party before the general elections next year. In the midst of this, Gaza has been on the boil as thousands of Palestinians have attempted to charge the border fence into Israel and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have, predictably, responded with strength.

The Gaza protests, dubbed the Great March of Return by Hamas, started on March 30 and are supposed to last until May 15, the day Palestinians commemorate as Nakba (catastrophe) Day. The purpose is manifold – to demand that Palestinian refugees be allowed to return to their lands in Israel, to protest the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and to draw attention to the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip. Palestinians participating in the protests have varied in number from around 5,000 to 15,000 except on the first day which saw a turnout of 30,000.

Approximately 110 Palestinians have died so far in the protests. On May 14 alone, the 70th anniversary of the proclamation of the State of Israel, 58 Palestinians were killed and approximately 2,700 injured at the border fence in what many are calling a massacre. While the world paints the protests as peaceful and accuses Israel of using disproportionate force, the IDF maintains that the Palestinian demonstrations have been anything but peaceful and are a cynical and bloody ploy by Hamas to gain international sympathy and headlines by paying in Palestinian corpses. Interestingly, the loud international outcry has been drowned out in the muted response from Arab capitals.

The international version of the Gaza protests does not add up. For starters, the Palestinian protesters have been photographed in possession of Molotov cocktails and machetes, flying swastika flags – which can have only one meaning to a Jew – and been arrested trying to breach the border fence into Israel. This has been accompanied by the usual stone pelting and colourful calls to slaughter all Jews and wipe out all Zionists. In the early days of the demonstrations, Palestinians set fire to large mounds of tires in the hope that the smoke would damage Israeli agriculture; a sudden change in the direction of the wind foiled that plot. Undeterred, kites were used to carry tear gas and bombs into Israel to set crops on fire. These attempts have been slightly more successful but also largely failed thanks to an alert citizenry and the emergency services.

There is also the question of what the intentions of this unruly, violent mob were had they succeeded in crossing over into Israel. The locus of the protests was barely 500 metres away from the border fence but protesters attempted to approach the fence at several locations. Is it plausible that the mob, with inflamed passions, calmly turn around and head back to Gaza? The tactics of the crowds suggest otherwise. The IDF was, then, acting in a purely preventive manner.

The claim of peaceful gathering does not hold for yet another reason – nowhere in the world would security services allow such a large gathering of clearly incited people to accumulate so close to a high security zone. Areas such as borders, nuclear facilities, military bases, and the prime ministerial residence are not the same as roads and parks which are open to the common public. Any suspicious activity, let alone mass gatherings, near such restricted areas are viewed as a security threat and dealt with accordingly. Hamas’ call for Gazans to gather at the border must therefore be seen as at least provocative if not outright aggressive in its nature in the challenge it posed to Israeli security.

It is also telling that Kerem Shalom, the only crossing for goods from Israel to Gaza, was attacked. In three separate attacks, mobs torched the border crossing and damaged depots containing building material destined for Gaza and fuel infrastructure. This would only worsen the electricity shortage in Gaza and slow international aid coming into the Strip. Hamas has also refused to accept Israeli humanitarian aid for the Palestinians injured in the clashes, reiterating their noxious brand of politics: the Gaza circus would only get international attention if there are enough casualties to merit a place in Western newspaper columns.

Finally, there is the old argument that Israel uses disproportionate force against terrorists. This is not the first time that accusation has been made but it is as unjustified as it has been in the past. The nature of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is fundamentally asymmetric – Palestinian terror organisations by design operate around non-combatant zones like civilian population centres, schools, and hospitals; they ensure the presence of women, children, the handicapped, and old people to manipulate the sympathies of the international audience in case of an Israeli strike against their bases; they do not wear uniforms and their targets are civilian structures rather than military assets. It is virtually impossible to strictly follow the rules of engagement reserved for inter-state conflict in such a scenario. The best that can be hoped for is the minimisation of collateral damage, civilians who have been put at risk by the terrorists’ strategy than by Israeli counter-attacks.

Moreover, deterrence contains an element of psychological warfare, of fear, and relies on disproportionate damage. If Israel is proportionate in its counter-terrorism strategy, it loses its advantage of power in the asymmetric struggle while the terrorists retain theirs. Furthermore, as a democratic country – that happens to be under demographic pressure – Israel cannot the tolerate casualties as casually as Hamas. Expectations also contribute to this – Hamas’ sympathisers do not expect it to be able to inflict equal damage upon Israel while the Israeli mainstream opinion remains in favour of punitive action to demoralise and humiliate the enemy.

Responsibility for the loss of life in Gaza over the past six weeks lies entirely at the feet of Hamas. It cannot be reasonably expected that the IDF sit back and allow tens of thousands of demonstrators to approach the border and breach the security fence, attack farms, crossing points, infrastructure, and Israelis. Anyone saying otherwise is either naïve or performing for a select audience.

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Israel’s Day At The Ballot Box

18 Wed Mar 2015

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Israel, Middle East

≈ Comments Off on Israel’s Day At The Ballot Box

Tags

Barack Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, European Union, Gaza, HaBayit HaYehudi, Iran, Isaac Herzog, Israel, John Boehner, John Kerry, Knesset, Kulanu, Likud, Meretz, Mitch McConnell, Moshe Kahlon, nuclear, Palestine, Reuven Rivlin, Samantha Power, Saudi Arabia, settlements, Susan Rice, United List, United States, UTJ, West Bank, Yahadut HaTora HaMeuhedet, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, Zionist Union

March 17 is an important day for many reasons, but it is known primarily for being the death anniversary of Patrick, one of the patron saints of Ireland. On this day in 180, Marcus Aurelius died, very unwisely, leaving the Empire to Commodus; in 1861, the Kingdom of Italy was proclaimed, perhaps equally unwisely; and in 2015, Israel went to the polls and elected Binyamin Netanyahu…how wisely, is yet to be seen. These elections have evinced interest from important capitals in the West and the region, for Israel’s policies could influence a very volatile region at a crucial juncture.

Netanyahu’s reelection is a big blow to the Democrats in the United States. The difficult relationship between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu is no secret; Jerusalem and Washington have differences on the Palestinian question but Iran has made the relationship even more acrimonious. While the White House has sought to engage diplomatically with Tehran and come to a negotiated settlement, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has insisted on a harsher interpretation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and Iran’s obligations under it as a signatory. In September 2012, Netanyahu made a speech in the United Nations that urged the United States to draw clear red lines on Iranian nuclear development beyond which to consider a military solution to the issue. Israel has stuck to this stance despite several public statements from Israel’s own former intelligence chiefs that downplayed the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel.

In January of this year, the Netanyahu-Obama relationship became even more acrid when the Israeli prime minister accepted an invitation from John Boehner, the leader of the US House of Representatives, and Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, to address a joint session of the US Congress. The Republicans, who were critical of Obama’s nuclear negotiations with Tehran, were incensed at the US president’s threat to veto any bill that proposed passing new sanctions on Iran and broke diplomatic protocol by inviting a foreign head of state to Congress without the knowledge of the White House. This saga unfolded in the wake of ugly allegations that the US State Department had funded a tax-exempt organisation to undermine Netanyahu’s bid for reelection. In February 2015, senior US officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, National Security Advisor Susan Rice, and US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, publically criticised Netanyahu and some even took to the social media platform Twitter to attack him.

Israeli elections 2015It is important to understand this background for it informs the outcome of the Israeli election. The most important issue that concerns Israel today, according to Netanyahu, is the nuclearisation of Iran. On this, he has shown willingness to damage Israel’s relations with its closest ally and even weaken the bipartisan support it has enjoyed in the US Congress. This brinkmanship and fearmongering on the international scene finds strong support domestically. Netanyahu’s victory confirms that many ordinary Israelis agree with his assessment even over the opinion of their military and intelligence chiefs. While opinion poll after opinion poll tells us that Israelis are concerned about the social issues such as the cost of living, housing, and employment, Netanyahu’s Likud surged ahead of Isaac Herzog and his Zionist Union upon promises that Netanyahu would never accept a Palestinian state and continue to expand settlements in the disputed territories. Moshe Kahlon and his Kulanu, who had actually run on an economic platform, managed only fifth place with 10 seats, behind the Likud, Zionist Union, (Arab) United List, and Yesh Atid. Similar behaviour was observed even in 2013, and with 72 per cent voter turnout in these elections, ideology and identity seem to mean far more to Israelis than socioeconomic well-being – not a surprising conclusion but one that militates against the logic of the rational actor. Perhaps because for Israelis, ideology and identity is synonymous with security – a higher order need than bread alone.

Netanyahu was also helped by the fact that many of those who voted for him did so only because they could not see any viable alternative. To the middle class, he has been a disappointment though most admit that he is their man on security. What might put a spanner in the works is President Reuven Rivlin had earlier indicated that he would seek a national unity government. Given the political landscape, it would be very difficult for Herzog to produce a winning combination: he would have to seduce the Yahadut HaTora HaMeuhedet away from the Likud with concessions to synagogues, unite Meretz, the United List, and Yesh Atid behind him, and hope that Kahlon does not return to his Likud roots. Instead, the size of Likud’s victory might just persuade Rivlin to invite the leader of the largest party to form the governing coalition rather than maintain his earlier desire.

Netanyahu has used two issues to rally his base – the fear of a nuclear Iran and the undesirability of Palestinian statehood. His victory now puts Israel on a collision course with both the European Union and the United States, the former over Palestine and settlements and the latter over Iran. Unfortunately, the Israeli prime minister has no solutions of his own to offer either. On Palestine, Israel has two choices – accept their statehood or incorporate them into a larger, multicultural, non-Jewish Israel. The only other option is to use military force to initiate a mass exodus of the people of Gaza and the West Bank, a thoroughly unpalatable course of action with dire consequences for Jerusalem.

To become prime minister, however, one needs 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset and the Likud’s 30 means there will be a coalition yet again. A coalition of the religious parties and Likud alone will not suffice to give Netanyahu the majority he needs and so he will have to reach out to the centrists at least. All centrist and leftist parties support Palestinian statehood though each have their own caveats. Nonetheless, this means that there will be support for Palestinian statehood within the ruling coalition and that could restrict the prime minister’s hand during his term.

From Iran, Netanyahu expects total supplication. No country could accept such terms short of total conquest, especially not the proud Persians. To be fair, Israel’s concerns are not unfathomable, especially to Indians. Jerusalem fears the nuclear veto Tehran will possess on Israel’s range of options if Iran ever crosses the nuclear Rubicon, much the same way Pakistan holds India hostage today. Unfortunately for Israel, its options are constricted for war with Iran without the backing of the United States – even with the backing of the United States – will be a thoroughly taxing affair and not be limited to the deserts of the Middle East but spread to all Jewish assets across the globe. Furthermore, Israel’s greatest patron, Uncle Sam, is exhausted after over a decade of military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Even worse for Israel, sanctions alone have proven ineffective against Iran for several reasons.

Politics makes for strange bedfellows, and interestingly, Israel is not alone in its fear – paranoia? – about the possibility of an Iranian nuclear arsenal. Netanyahu has the silent backing of at least Saudi Arabia and the majority of the Persian Gulf states such as Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. For reasons of political optics, it is a safe bet that this will not materialise into public support of Israel by the Arab monarchies and Israel will be remain isolated.

It would be an interesting exercise to study where the Likud got its votes. Compared to the results of the 2013 elections, it appears that the largest share of Likud’s votes came from other right-wing parties: while Likud jumped from 19 to 30, HaBayit HaYehudi and Yisrael Beiteinu fell from 12 and 11 to 8 and 6. On the whole, the right-wing parties have gained only one seat, from 43 to 44. It would, therefore, be inaccurate to consider this a landslide victory for the Right.

For India, the Israeli elections mean nothing. Delhi’s relations with Jerusalem are not so close that the finer differences between Israel’s political actors matter much to Raisina Hill. India plays the role of the deaf-mute in the Middle East for lack of capability (and willingness?) and has little influence on any side of any conflict. India would like to boost trade with Iran but Delhi has so far followed the American line and reduced its oil imports from the Middle Eastern state. Similarly, Israel is hardly likely to strike an alliance with Pakistan’s non-state friends – terrorists – nor is it likely to develop a strategic relationship with either Pakistan or China in the near future. Any government in Israel will be willing to develop its military and civilian relationship with India.

In sum, Netanyahu has come to power by playing on two major concerns, it appears, of the Israeli people and yet he has no solution to either. In fact, his preferences would put Israel squarely at war or at loggerheads with its close allies. At this moment, it is difficult to see how this will actualise into a successful prime ministership. One possibility is that Netanyahu will hope for a Republican victory in the next US presidential election; he will bide his time until January 2017 when Obama finally leaves office and hope to repair some of the damage done these past few years. Europe will be a tougher but less valuable nut to crack. For now, a sombre mood hangs over the Tehran, Washington, and a few pockets of Israel.


This post first appeared on Swarajya on March 19, 2015.

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Tragedy in Gaza

20 Sun Jul 2014

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Israel, Middle East

≈ Comments Off on Tragedy in Gaza

Tags

Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza, Hamas, IDF, Israel, Israeli Defence Forces, Mivtza Tzuk Eitan, Operation Protective Edge, Palestine

A week into Mivtza Tzuk Eitan, the death toll has crossed over 500 Palestinians and 27 Israelis and yet there are no signs of a ceasefire agreement. Hamas has fired over 1,700 rockets into Israel in just the past two weeks but loss of life has been minimal largely due to Israeli civil defence measures. In Gaza, countless thousands of Palestinians have fled Israeli gunships and tanks but there is little place for them to go anywhere in the already congested Strip.

There is no doubt that what is occurring in Gaza is profoundly moving. It is also quite clear that Israel and its international assets are constantly under threat of suicide bombers, rockets, kidnappers, and hijackers. Demonstrations, pro-Palestine and pro-Israel but mostly the former, have been taking place the world over – Paris, Copenhagen, Sydney, Brussels, Bucharest, Sanaa, Istanbul, New York, London – and in India, domestic politics has motivated the Congress Party to loudly demand that the Government of India condemn Israeli actions against the Palestinians unequivocally.

War has always been brutal and urban warfare even more so; urban guerrilla warfare particularly so. Until the advent of social media and embedded journalism, the horrors of the front never reached middle class civilians, sitting comfortably at home and far away from the conflict zone. Armies have never liked the door-to-door, street-by-street demands of fighting amidst human settlements and the reason for that is now on every TV screen and Twitter timeline. After all, even the most callous can ignore only so many old people, women, and children perishing as collateral damage.

The strong international reaction is more indicative of the general ignorance of war conditions until now than any especially brutal tactics of the the Israeli Defence Forces. This is war, and it is in an urban setting; there will inevitably be the irreparable collateral damage of lives lost and broken. While not all Palestinians are Hamas, neither were all Germans Nazis nor were all Vietnamese Viet Cong. For once, the nightmare is being flashed into unaware middle class homes and the reaction is predictable.

It is interesting to note that the public has reacted more strongly to Mivtza Tzuk Eitan than governments. While most governments have appealed to Hamas to desist from firing rockets into Israel and to Tel Aviv to show some restraint, mob passions have been inflamed. Interestingly, even Arab and Muslim governments – brothers of the Palestinian people – have largely remained silent or mumbled their criticism of Israel in hushed tones. Palestine, it seems, has no friends, a bitter lesson pro-Palestine activists and militants have learned the hard way.

While one can extend sympathy to the Palestinian bereaved, it is not easy to convert that sympathy into support. How does one reconcile the fact that Palestinians have repeatedly bitten the hand that tried to feed them because “it was not doing enough”? It is as if the Palestinians expect a monopoly over their benefactors’ attention and resources.

Jordan will not quickly forget that the Palestinian Liberation organisation attempted a coup in their country that had to ultimately be ruthlessly put down with Pakistani arms and Israeli intelligence. Kuwaitis will not forgive so quickly Palestinian support to Saddam Hussein when the Iraqi dictator invaded and annexed the tiny Gulf emirate in August 1990; nor is it easy to move past scenes of celebration in Palestine and Palestinian localities in the West when the events of September 11 unfolded.

Yet in Gaza today, it is Israel who is in the wrong – not for the Palestinian casualties but for its own. Benjamin Netanyahu has sacrificed the lives of 27 of his countrymen with little to show in return. The prime minister’s own military and intelligence officials have expressed disagreements with him over the scale of the operation and its potential success rate. No one is certain what Israel’s war aims are – the kidnapping of the three teenagers was clearly a false pretext for a larger operation that had been planned a while back. Even if the IDF is completely successful in destroying every stockpile of armaments and demolishing every supply tunnel, the very nature of asymmetric warfare is such that these will be replaced quickly. For military as well as publicity reasons, Israel cannot afford annual excursions into Palestinian areas with heavy death tolls. As many analysts have warned, if the unending dissatisfaction among the Palestinians gives an opening to groups like ISIS, Israel will have invited upon itself far greater troubles than a few rockets into its cities. Mivtza Tzuk Eitan may be a tactical Israeli victory but it is a strategic blunder for it was not in the service of any larger political objective. For all intents and purposes, Netanyahu has lost the public relations battle already.

The real tragedy is that the solutions are few and hard; one might ask Hamas to stop firing rockets into Israel, but a line from Gladiator comes to mind: when Quintus mutters to Maximus about the Germanic tribes that people should know when they have been conquered, Maximus replies, “Would you, Quintus? Would I?” Against a vastly superior enemy in the IDF, Hamas cannot relinquish its best weapon – international opprobrium at Israel over civilian casualties – and therefore  deliberately entangles the Israeli forces in guerrilla warfare in “non-combatant” zones.

If Israel were asked to show restraint, Tel Aviv would undoubtedly claim that it is their right to defend themselves against acts of terror. In this, they would be right but consider this: one of the greatest causes for friction between the two sides is the continued settlement by Israelis of disputed territories. This is a blatant violation of international law and yet settlers receive funding from the Israeli state as well as from non-profit organisations in the West, particularly the United States. Washington can easily turn off this tap but has been hesitant to do so for domestic reasons, feeding into the Judean discontent. Small wonder then, that many Palestinians see Uncle Sam more as a hypocritical player in the Middle East than as an honest peace broker.

World over, legislative bodies offer the Palestinians empty words but none are willing to offer peacekeepers or real solutions. The Arab countries are nowhere to be seen and Egypt still keeps the border crossing at Rafah from its territory into Gaza closed. India’s Congress Party wants to condemn Israel as if that would set right all wrongs in the region but has little to offer in terms of thinking on a peace process or the will to enforce it. One only wonders how Delhi would react if the Knesset were to admonish it on the application of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in Kashmir.

War has always been like Gaza, like Syria, like northern Iraq – it is just that no one really cares once the guns fall silent. So if there is to be any moral outrage, it ought to be expended over that before tussling with an intractable reality of life and urban warfare. The entire Levant is a human tragedy on an epic scale but there is little anyone is willing to do to stop it.

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