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Chaturanga

~ statecraft, strategy, society, and Σοφíα

Chaturanga

Tag Archives: Larsen & Toubro

From Russia, With Love

26 Sat Dec 2015

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in India, Nuclear, South Asia

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Andhra Pradesh, Areva, climate change, GE, General Electric, India, Kovvada, Kudankulam, Larsen & Toubro, Narendra Modi, nuclear, nuclear energy, Rosatom, Russia, Vodo-Vodyanoi Energetichesky Reaktor, VVER, Westinghouse

Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia yielded 16 agreements ranging from defence, energy, space cooperation, manufacturing, and education. Of particular interest to some has been the announcement regarding the purchase of Russian nuclear reactors for Kudankulam as well as a yet-to-be-decided site. Modi swept into office promising electrification and ample energy for all; his visit to the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in July 2014, just two months after taking office, his party’s manifesto promise of aggressively pursuing thorium reactor technology and deployment, and his discussions with US president Barack Obama in January 2015 that led to a convoluted arrangement that partially resolved apprehensions about India’s nuclear nuclear liability law all indicated that the prime minister would actually deliver on his promises.

However, little moved on the nuclear front over the past 18 months; in fact, it would not be amiss to say that things actually slid back a little with the chief executive officer of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt, announcing that he would not risk exposing his company to India’s nuclear liability law and that GE would not be in the Indian nuclear business. Even the much hyped nuclear understanding with Japan has not yet turned out to mean much, and the prime minister made no mention of nuclear power at the international climate change conference in Paris a couple of weeks ago. Nuclear developments from the Russia trip, then, were a much welcome bit of news. As is typical of the Indian government, the announcement was just a stub, even in the official press releases, and not much has been spelled out about India’s new Russian purchase.

In his statement, the prime minister announced that India was keen to acquire twelve Russian reactors for two sites. The first of these sites is Kudankulam, where one Russian 1,000 MW VVER is already operating (though on suspiciously long maintenance downtime) and another is about to achieve criticality in a few weeks. This site was originally finalised in 1989 for two reactors with the option of expanding to eight units. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union, an Indian economic downturn, and anti-nuclear protests delayed work and the first reactor went online only last year in 2014. Confirming six reactors at Kudankulam does not utilise the 1989 understanding to its maximum but it is nonetheless a significant departure for Indian nuclear policy, and one for the better: for reasons unknown to outsiders, it has been the practice of the Department of Atomic Energy to sanction two reactors at a time. Reactors in India have always been built in pairs at each site – Narora, Kaiga, Kakrapar, Tarapur, Madras, and Rawatbhata. This may seem like an insignificant deviation but as the United Arab Emirates’ recent experience has shown, building more reactors of the same type simultaneously improves the efficiency of construction. This is further supported by industry analyses of why the construction of the EPR at Olkiluoto went completely off the rail.

The second site for six more of Russia’s reactors, it is being reported, is in Andhra Pradesh though the exact spot is yet to be determined. These are thought to be the slightly larger VVERs, rated at 1,200 MW. Interestingly, Andhra is already in line to receive six of GE’s 1,520 MW Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) reactors at Kovvada. Does the prime minister’s announcement mean that Kovvada has now been handed over to the Russians, especially in light of Immelt’s outburst in September 2015? If this is not the case, Andhra Pradesh will be home to twelve reactors. Hyderabad’s interest in procuring Russian reactors is no secret. Earlier this year, in June, when West Bengal balked at having two Russian VVERs at Haripur, chief minister Chandrababu Naidu offered his state as a potential home for the displaced reactor plans. This marks a sharp departure from the state’s earlier decision to rely on oil & gas to meet its energy needs.

Modi’s Russian nuclear package also comes with a ‘Make in India’ bonus: Rosatom, the Russian nuclear reactor manufacturer, will be sourcing more components from Indian vendors. The joint statement read, “India and Russia will expand their cooperation in science and technology, industry, localization of equipment and spares, uranium mining, fabrication and supply of nuclear fuel, management of spent fuel and in other aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle.” It is not clear if this entails technology transfers as the deal with Areva at Jaitapur has meant for Larsen & Toubro: the French concern has agreed to help L&T upgrade its forging capacity to produce components suitable for the EPR. Rosatom may well ask Indian companies to assemble knocked-down kits as Russian defence contractors have done in the past with Indian industry.

From a governmental perspective, the most positive aspect of this deal is that it will go through. India’s nuclear liability law, enacted in 2010, delayed or scuttled many other promising ventures such as the ones at Mithi Virdhi and Kovvada; Jaitapur has also had its share of delays to the extent that its environmental clearance license expired last month. Rosatom has been the only international vendor that has stuck with India, though it has worked in a substantial hike in the price of its reactors in a renegotiated contract: while Kudankulam I and II cost the Indian taxpayer approximately Rs. 17,300 crores, Kudankulam III and IV will cost them in the vicinity of Rs. 39,500 crores. Not all of that 130 per cent hike can be explained away by inflation and exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, there are doubts whether Rosatom will actually pay damages in the extremely unlikely event of a nuclear accident at Kudankulam: although the operator is committed to a no-fault liability, supplier liability can easily get bogged down for decades in courts under a mountain of technical data and legal manoeuvres.

Overall, however, the deal is good for India. Russia’s VVER reactors are among the more advanced Gen III+ designs and will provide clean, cheap, and reliable energy. The real drawback of the outcome in Moscow is that India’s joint vision with Russia on nuclear energy cooperation envisages only 12 reactors over the next 20 years. With the construction of high speed rail networks planned in India, a growing economy, and increasingly affluent citizens, these reactors will be a mere drop in the bucket. As the United States in the 1960s and 1970s, and France in the 1980s and 1990s, demonstrated, achieving a safe construction pace of three to five reactors per year is very much within the realm of possibility. India’s nuclear ambitions ought to mirror China’s building spree and 12 reactors ought to be ready by 2020 at the latest. The real question is, what do we do after that, Mr. Modi?


This post appeared on FirstPost on December 27, 2015.

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Nuclear in the Year of Modi

14 Thu May 2015

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in India, Nuclear, South Asia

≈ Comments Off on Nuclear in the Year of Modi

Tags

Advanced Heavy Water Reactor, AHWR, Areva, Australia, Canada, Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, CLNDA, energy, Fast Breeder Reactor, FBR, Homi Bhabha, IFR, India, Integral Fast Reactor, L&T, Larsen & Toubro, Molten Salt Reactor, MSR, nuclear, nuclear liability, thorium, transparency, uranium

It has been a year now since Narendra Modi took office as prime minister of India and by all accounts, it has been a good year. In many ways, Modi’s victory is reminiscent of Barack Obama’s rise to the presidency of the United States in 2008 – after eight years of what many saw as a misguided war in the Middle East and Central Asia, a significant number of Americans wanted change. Similarly, after ten years of anaemic Congress rule, Modi represented the hopes – perhaps unrealistically high – of millions of Indians.

For a candidate who had spoken at length about solar power during the election campaign, it was surprising to see Modi talk up nuclear energy once in office. In July 2014, Modi visited the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and was full of praise for India’s nuclear community. Declaring that nuclear power would be an essential part of India’s energy security, he assured the Department of Atomic Energy of his full support in the implementation of their expansion plans. To be sure, it will take a brave prime minister to belittle the nuclear programme – India takes much pride in its high-tech endeavours such as spacefaring and nuclear technology, especially given the prejudicial international environment in which it was developed. Yet such pride has not necessarily translated into support in the past – some projects are decades overdue and there was never a concerted push towards nuclear power in India.

A few important developments in the nuclear arena have taken place during Modi’s first year in office, some of them entirely of his making and others not so much. For example, India signed agreements with Australia and Canada for the supply of uranium for its safeguarded reactors. These negotiations had been ongoing since the previous regime and would have been concluded no matter who resided at Race Course Road. Similarly, work on Kudankulam, Kalpakkam, and general nuclear research would have likely continued under bureaucratic inertia.

Modi’s leadership has expedited other nuclear developments, principally the civil liability for nuclear suppliers. However clumsy the solution to the train wreck that is India’s nuclear civil liability law may be, a suppliers’ insurance pool removed a major obstacle before nuclear vendors – foreign and domestic – investing in the Indian nuclear market. Another project that saw some movement in the past year due to Modi’s involvement was Jaitapur. The Indian prime minister raised the issue of Jaitapur with Areva during his visit to Paris in April 2015 and saw the French nuclear concern sign a pre-engineering agreement (PEA) with Larsen & Toubro. The agreement is significant, perhaps more so than one realises, because it involves the transfer of forging technology to L&T to enable it to manufacture reactor vessels for the French EPR reactor in India. Not only will this obviate the need for European and American nuclear vendors to depend upon Japanese companies to provide crucial reactor components, but it will also allow India to support its indigenous nuclear industry and eventually enter the export market.

As remarkable as these two achievements are, the shortcomings of Modi Sarkar are equally baffling. Despite a close relationship with Shinzo Abe since his days as the chief minister of Gujarat, Modi was not able to nudge an Indo-Japanese civil nuclear cooperation agreement closer to the finish line. This was a disappointing setback as both Tokyo and Delhi try to surreptitiously bolster defence and strategic cooperation. Similarly, India failed to capitalise on the Russian offer made during Vladimir Putin’s visit in December 2014 to build 20 reactors in the country. Part of the problem was perhaps that the Indian nuclear establishment was not ready to absorb such an investment and had no sites or plans ready to deploy so many reactors. Furthermore, domestic opposition to nuclear power would make quick movement on new sites difficult.

As always, there have been rumblings about Hitachi and Toshiba setting up nuclear power complexes at Srikakulam and Mithi Virdi but there has been little movement on the ground despite the persistence of such rumours for almost a decade. Similarly, Rosatom’s project at Haripur has been stalled for years without any conclusion in sight. The foundation stone to Gorakhpur, an indigenous nuclear project, was laid by then prime minister Manmohan Singh in January 2014 but the project had been planned since 1984 and there is little news of it since the foundation ceremony either. Such chronic delays need to be addressed if India is to ever pursue nuclear power seriously – in an era where financing is the largest component of the cost of a nuclear power plant, delays can mean the death knell for nuclear energy.

Despite some good progress on the nuclear front during Modi’s first year as prime minister, some fundamental reforms of huge import remain to be accomplished. One is in the arena of transparency. Pace the claims by the nuclear conclave, reliable and consistent information about the nuclear programme is elusive. The introduction of the Right To Information Act has shifted the onus of uncovering data onto activists rather than keep it on the department in question. Furthermore, national security or the public interest is used as an excuse to cloak even the quotidian operations of the Department of Atomic Energy. For example, in November 2014, the Minister of State for Department of Atomic Energy, Jitendra Singh, informed the Lok Sabha that “it is not in the public interest to disclose the quantity of production of uranium” in response to a question on the average annual production from uranium mines and the quality of the ore!

Another reform that should be considered over the next four years is to transfer the control over nuclear energy to the Ministry of Power. This would allow the minister responsible to take a comprehensive view of the power requirements of the country and the options available before deciding on India’s energy mix. Though secrecy may have been important to India’s nuclear programme in its dual-use incarnation, the separation of civilian and military nuclear facilities as stipulated by the Indo-US nuclear deal has obviated the need for such levels of confidentiality. Defence reactors would obviously be retained by the PMO or perhaps transferred to the Ministry of Defence, but those facilities involved in non-military activities can be put under the purview of the minister of power.

What Modi and the Indian nuclear programme sorely needs is a visionary. When Homi Bhabha envisioned a three-stage nuclear programme for India in November 1954, there was not a single commercially operating nuclear reactor in the world; India did not yet have an operational reactor of any type. The world’s first commercial power reactor went critical in December 1957 in Shippingport, United States, and India’s first reactor, Apsara, came online in August 1956 for research purposes; India’s first commercial reactor, Tarapur Unit I, went critical only in October 1969. Bhabha’s ability to think decades ahead was a boon for India’s nuclear programme but it came at a point when the commercial uranium reactors were still a theory and thorium reactors were a distant dream. Bhabha himself was a competent scientist but by no means technically brilliant. However, his audacious dream transformed India .

It is difficult to predict what a visionary might advocate but a few things that might receive consideration are new technologies such as Molten Salt Reactors, Integral Fast Reactors, and thorium reactors such as the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor. A second consideration would be a ramp up in the number of reactors by an order of magnitude – if we want clean air, plentiful energy, and growth simultaneously, perhaps it is time someone talked about a thousand reactors over the next half century rather than twenty, fifty, or even a hundred. Modi has shown himself to be an able administrator so far but now he needs a domain expert with chutzpah. As the good Book teaches us, where there is no vision, the people perish (Míshlê 29:18).


This post appeared on Daily News & Analysis on May 18, 2015.

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Questions over Jaitapur

12 Sun Apr 2015

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Europe, France, India, South Asia

≈ Comments Off on Questions over Jaitapur

Tags

16MND5, AP1000, Areva, EDF, Electricité de France, EPR, Finland, Framatome, Hazira, Hitachi, India, Jaitapur, Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant, Japan Steel Works, JNPP, Larsen & Toubro, Le Creusot, NPCIL, nuclear, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, reactor pressure vessel, RPV, Siemens AG, STUK, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, TVO, uranium, Westinghouse

In the hullabaloo over the fluctuating fortunes of the Rafale fighter aircraft during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France, little attention has been given to the developments in the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project. Inked in 2010, the project inched forward during the state visit after the French nuclear concern, Areva, signed an agreement with the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited and a memorandum of understanding with Larsen & Toubro related to the construction of the power plants. The JNPP is estimated to cost $18 billion and host six Generation III+ EPR reactors of 1,650 MW each. With a total power generation capacity of 9,900 MW when complete, Jaitapur will trump Japan’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa (8,200 MW) to become the world’s largest nuclear power plant.

The movement on Jaitapur signals that the logjam on the issue of nuclear liability has been resolved to the satisfaction of foreign nuclear vendors, however wasteful, self-defeating, and unnecessarily convoluted the idea of a nuclear suppliers’ insurance pool may be. The agreements signed between the Indian and the French sides will go towards resolving some of the difficulties in the negotiations so far. Areva has moved forward with a pre-engineering agreement with NPCIL that will allow India to assess and license the EPR reactor as per Indian laws and regulations. The commencement of the licensing procedure in parallel to the negotiations on cost, manufacturing, transfer of technology, and other matters will expedite the project when it comes time for the final agreement to be signed. Areva has also entered into an agreement with L&T to source heavy engineering components such as reactor pressure vessels and steam generators as well as electrical equipment, valves, and pipes. A technical team from Areva recently visited the L&T heavy forging facility at Hazira after which they developed confidence that these components could be manufactured in India. Progress between Areva and L&T will also reduce the lead time once construction starts full swing. Such localisation will not only lower costs but also enhance L&T’s existing capabilities. This is an important development which will give the company an edge in bidding for contracts in the 1,530 MW GE-Hitachi reactor complex planned for Srikakulam and the Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Mithi Virdi. Furthermore, with the agreement on civil nuclear cooperation between India and Japan stalled, L&T’s expanded skill set will come very handy for the Indian nuclear industry.

Despite several reasons to be pleased with the progress on Jaitapur, one substantial question remain unanswered – that of the EPR reactor itself. Initially called the European Pressurised Reactor but then internationalised to Evolutionary Power Reactor and now finally just the ‘EPR,’ the reactor was jointly designed by Areva (then Framatome), Electricité de France, and Siemens AG. The design is substantially safer than most commercial power reactors that are presently operational in the world – it can withstand seismic disturbances and has the ability to tolerate a direct plane crash. Furthermore, it has 400 per cent redundancy in its safety and cooling systems as well as a core catcher in case of a meltdown. The reactor generates 15 per cent less long-life radioactive waste products and operates on several types of fuel – enriched uranium, mixed oxide fuel, and reprocessed uranium – and does so at a better efficiency than previous generation reactors. This makes the EPR cheaper to operate and maintain. What makes pressurised water reactors like the EPR attractive to India is that the country maintains a small fleet of CANDU reactors which can accommodate spent PWR fuel as its primary fuel in what is known as the DUPIC (Direct Use of PWR fuel In CANDU) fuel cycle with only physical reprocessing and skipping the more expensive chemical processes.

This bag of goodies, however, has a large question mark hanging over it – no one has managed to successfully construct and operate an EPR reactor yet. In fact, the tales of delay from construction sites around the world where EPRs are being erected – Olkiluoto, Flamanville, and Taishan – should deter anyone from choosing the French reactor. The projects in Finland and France are severely behind schedule and in China, Areva is concerned that safety procedures may not have been assiduously followed. One wonders if countries such as France that are synonymous with the success of nuclear power, advanced industrial states like Finland, and manufacturing powerhouses like China are struggling to build an EPR to safety standards, what chance does a novice in nuclear construction and lightweight in industrial manufacturing like India have to build the reactor on time and on specification?

None of the problems with the EPR construction have been due to faulty design. In fact, India can rest easier after the many lessons that have been learned from the other sites. There are none that cannot be overcome and most are fairly simple though with expensive consequences. At Olkiluoto, for example, trouble started with the pouring of concrete for the base slab itself. There were several non-conformities that came to the attention of the safety inspectors and eventually, the concrete batching plant itself had to be redesigned. The reasons for this, an investigation revealed, were manifold. First, there was no “appointed responsible manager at the site unambiguously in charge of the base slab fabrication, with authority to issue orders that are binding to all parties.” Second, the crew at different phases of fabrication did not have a common understanding of nuclear safety. Third, the concrete supplier was not made explicitly aware of the requirements of nuclear-grade concrete at the time of tender invitations. Four, the fabrication staff was not trained in special methods and quality standards required in manufacturing nuclear-grade concrete. Five, the problems observed in concreting operations were not always immediately addressed. Six, there was a communication problem on quality assurance, fabrication of material, and the design of the mix composition. Seven, in quality control, too much trust was placed on the responsible attitude of the parties in the elimination of the detected problems. In the manufacture of the steel container lining, the welds between the various steel plates were found wanting; repairs were conducted using unapproved methods for nuclear construction; segments had to be redesigned and rebuilt; due to lack of communication, the design modifications at one phase were not accounted for in the next phase and modifications had to be made in the next phase as well.

Similar but fewer problems were faced at Flamanville and fewer still at Taishan. This was because of the enormous amount of learning that happened at Olkiluoto. While the project is routinely cited as an example of a disaster in nuclear engineering by the media, safety inspectors and regulators at Areva, EDF, and STUK, the Finnish safety regulator, are actually proud of all that has been learned and how incident discovery and resolution occurred in a highly professional manner. Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, the Finnish nuclear consortium, was made painfully aware that the nuclear industry had lost a lot of talent since the 1970s and 1980s to retirement and stagnation. Thirty years ago, vendors were large and experienced firms that could design and manufacture almost all parts of the nuclear power process in-house. This obviated the need for subcontractors and quality assurance was unified and easier. A moribund industry saw vendors downsize and bleed talent to other sectors. As a result, the recent nuclear renaissance is built on the backs of dozens of subcontractors who are not trained to understand the higher standards demanded by nuclear construction. This makes quality assurance and a collective safety culture difficult to implement and enforce.

The loss of skill has affected nuclear vendors in more ways than just through unqualified subcontractors – mistakes are made in routine tasks even in-house. The work at the Flamanville plant, for example, was recently overhauled for concentrations of carbon above the regulatory limit in the steel of the reactor pressure vessel. While the larger vessel was forged by Japan Steel Works, probably the only forge in the world that can process the ingots required for the EPR, the smaller plates in which flaws have been found were made by Areva itself at its plant in Le Creusot.

Olkiluoto has taught Areva that the earlier the licensee, regulator, and contractor start talking to each other, the better. The project should be mapped out as much as possible before work begins and everyone should know how they fit into the larger picture. This handholding is required especially of new subcontractors who have little experience in nuclear work and do not understand how modifications they might make can have severe consequences downstream. Furthermore, advanced construction and manufacturing techniques are difficult to perform if not regularly practiced. Areva should have ensured that the subcontractors understood the higher degree of workmanship that would be required of them before hiring them for the Oilkiluoto project. When working with such an inexperienced crew, Areva should have also been realistic about the time estimated to complete each stage of the project.

Some of these lessons have already been incorporated. At Taishan, for example, 50 per cent of the management and engineering staff and 90 per cent of the procurement officials from Areva’s side were Olkiluoto and Flamanville veterans. The site has had the least problems or delays as a result. Applying these lessons to Jaitapur will certainly ensure that the project does not run into interminable delays. The cooperation between L&T and Areva is good news but India also suffers from a small pool of relatively inexperienced nuclear contractors. The price for nuclear stagnation world over has been steep and to avoid paying it now would only make it steeper in the future.

The processes for manufacturing, construction, procurement of mechanical components, and quality and safety standards must be set in stone before work commences if India is to avoid another Olkiluoto. In an era where financing costs are higher than material costs, delays could wreck a project’s viability. At a time when India needs to be talking about hundreds of nuclear reactors and not dozens, a misstep like Olkiluoto or even Flamanville could grievously damage the reputation of the fledgling nuclear industry as well as the technology itself. India’s operator, regulator, and contractors must be vigilant, especially since a reactor of this type is yet to be successfully built.

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