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Chaturanga

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Tag Archives: New Silk Road

A View From Central Asia

14 Wed May 2014

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Central Asia, India, South Asia

≈ Comments Off on A View From Central Asia

Tags

Afghanistan, Ashgabat, Astana, Bishkek, Central Asia, Chabahar, China, Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, Dushanbe, East Turkistan Islamic Movement, India, INSTC, International North-South Trade Corridor, Iran, Karshi-Khanabad, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Manas, New Silk Road, Russia, SCO, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Tajikistan, Tashkent, Turkmenistan, Uighur, United States, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang

After month-long elections in nine phases, the Bharatiya Janata Party is returning to power in India after a decade in Opposition. Led to its highest ever Lok Sabha tally by Narendra Modi, it is the first time since 1984 that the BJP or any party has secured a majority on its own. This will, observers hope, bring a new decisiveness to the Prime Minister’s Office that has been lacking for the past ten years.

In his election campaign, Modi talked about India’s relations with its neighbours in terms of trade and security. Departing from India’s traditional emphasis on ties with the superpowers, Modi focussed on India’s immediate neighbours in Asia, particularly the members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Japan. Though Central Asia did not feature prominently in the Prime Minister Elect’s speeches, it would be unwise to read too much into this – no matter its place amidst campaign promises, the region has geographic proximity and remains vital to Indian trade and security interests.

Until now, both sides have been subdued over the potential for better relations. The Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan – used to see India from the perspective of the Soviet Union, a friendly state which received aid and preferential economic treatment from Moscow. However, since India’s economic liberalisation began to bear fruit by the end of the previous millennium, the country has switched roles to having the capability of being a donor state to the Central Asian republics (CAR). Despite this switch, Ashgabat, Astana, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent have been disappointed to see India defer to Russia in taking an active role in the region.

Central Asian capitals have a generally positive view of India; some of the old hands from the Soviet era still populate the bureaucracy and remember the country fondly. More importantly, India has not used its image as the world’s largest democracy to push for liberalism and democracy in the region, preferring instead to instruct by example. India’s tiny footprint in Central Asia is not seen as threatening whereas China’s economic involvement in the region is viewed with suspicion. Russia is not much liked either due to dissatisfaction over its geopolitical domination over the five -stans. The United States is also suspect because its commitment to the region, combined with its constant harangues about human rights, is not trusted.

Other smaller players like Iran and Turkey have had limited success due to their finite means to provide solutions to the region’s problems. India’s military weakness compared to the other major actors – it still depends on Russia and other foreign suppliers for an overwhelming portion of its military equipment – in Central Asia and its growing economy makes it an ideal partner for prosperity and to balance Great Power designs.

Some of Central Asia’s positive view of India is also due to the several common goals they share. All parties are worried about the threat of Islamism which may boil over from Afghanistan and Pakistan; there is eagerness to develop energy infrastructure that can deliver oil and gas to India’s growing economy; interest also exists in expanding cooperation beyond mere energy and security. In no area is there a direct conflict of interest between India and the CARs.

Despite the goodwill and potential for a rewarding relationship, the CARs remain uncertain about Indian policy towards them. How will Delhi’s alignment with the United States and the European Union on the one hand and Russia and China on the other affect them? India is proud of its non-alignment but what would that mean for the region? What is India willing to offer that others cannot? How does India see Central Asia? These questions need clarification from Delhi.

Frustration also mounts from the lethargic pace of Indian business. The perception in Central Asia is that not only are Indian investments paltry compared to Chinese projects, but India is extremely slow in its delivery mechanism. India’s political dillydallying and sluggish bureaucracy has put in doubt the country’s seriousness and ability to be a reliable partner. While several memoranda of understanding have been signed between India and the CARs, the former is not even in the top ten countries exploring the region for oil and gas. Trade between the two regions at the end of 2012 remained at a paltry $700 million while that between China and the CARs topped $46 billion. South Block’s ambitious Connect Central Asia initiative and the International North-South Trade Corridor connecting South Asia to Europe by road, ship, rail, and pipeline via Central Asia and the Caucasus has not materialised yet.

China, on the other hand, has invested tens of billions of dollars in road, rail, and pipeline projects, all linking Central Asia to China. In 2000, China launched the Great Western Development Plan, which has made Xinjiang a vital trade and energy corridor along the New Silk Road. Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as well as bilateral agreements, China has invested over $30 billion in Kazakhstan to purchase MangistauMunaiGas and in its Kashagan oil field, the world’s largest discovery of oil in the last 30 years. Beijing has signed a $15 billion deal with neighbouring Uzbekistan for oil, gas, and uranium, and it has started production at Galkynysh in Turkmenistan, the world’s second-largest gasfield. In addition, Beijing has lent Ashgabat $4 billion to develop the gasfield at South Yolotan and extended $10 billion to the whole region during the international economic recession through the SCO. Furthermore, China is working on its New Silk Road to connect the Pacific Ocean to the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Once completed, it will lower cost of transport, bring Central Asia transit fees, and bypass India in the economic development of the region.

Interestingly, despite the enormous flow of investments from Beijing, there is very little trust of its motives among the Central Asian republics. The Chinese practice of using its own labour force, for example, has not eased tensions with local communities who are themselves migrant labourers in Russia due to unemployment back home. In addition, many think it is only a matter of time before Chinese immigrant workers settle in the Central Asian republics and take away more jobs. China’s brutal repression of the Uighur in Xinjiang has not gone unnoticed; despite its Soviet past, Central Asia remains a tribal society and old loyalties run deep. It is also unlikely that Kazakhstan, Tajikstan, or Kyrgyzstan will soon forget that they ceded land to China to maintain the peace, particularly when the ensuing protests removed the Kyrgyz president from office. A couple of years ago, Kanat Ibragimov, a Kazakh performance artist, symbolically decapitated a toy panda to protest against Chinese expansionism into his country.

It is in this light that the partnership with India has proven disappointing. Its failure to reap a bonanza so far has pushed Central Asia closer to the Chinese economy and kept their energy exports vulnerable to Russian transit policies by denying them access to the southern seas via Afghanistan and Iran. However, in India’s defence, one must also consider the fractious nature of the region. Rivalry, corruption, social polarisation, poverty, crime, narco-trafficking, and the lack of stable institutions has made central Asian states politically unstable and daunting to business.

Although India and China are both concerned by Islamism in the region, China would like to curtail Indian influence in Central Asia as it would eventually undermine Beijing’s goals vis-a-vis Pakistan. Similarly, though Russia might prefer India as a partner in Central Asia to balance China, it is loathe to share its backyard with anyone. The current Ukraine crisis has made China more useful to Russia while India’s diversification of its weapons suppliers in recent years has irked Moscow. As a result, India can expect little cooperation from either power in the joint development of energy and transportation infrastructure in Central Asia. Similarly, the United States and India cannot see eye-to-eye in Central Asia because of the former’s antipathy towards Iran and its ambiguous position towards Pakistan and its Islamist networks. India’s own military hesitation mean that Central Asia will continue to depend on the CSTO and the SCO for its security in the immediate future.

With a new prime minister, India has fresh impetus to pursue its mutual interests with Central Asia. A new government with a clear mandate from the people and no baggage is ideally positioned to forge stronger ties with Central Asia. First, India must recognise that it needs individual policies for each of Central Asia’s five states – each have their own priorities, problems, and the rivalries between them must be kept in mind. Second, India has so far played up its historical ties to the region and that is good soft power. However, soft power alone does not build partnerships. If it did, Turkey and Iran would be the dominant powers in Central Asia and not Russia and China. India must acknowledge that Central Asian leaders are pragmatic about security and trade bottom lines in their dealings.

Third, India needs to shift focus from the mega-projects to smaller, localised projects that will build trade relations across a spectrum of fields. India can lend its expertise in chemical equipment, electronics, telecommunications, mining, IT, services, tourism, environmental technology, education, healthcare, construction, and agriculture. Cooperation in archaeology, space, and the nuclear field is also possible. This is for two reasons: 1. it will be difficult to break into oil & gas exploration and development at this late date without even having a clear idea of how the pipelines from Central Asia will run to India, and 2. rivalries between the CARs, such as that between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan over hydropower and water, will also delay hydrocarbon transit; early successes are important to boost confidence and inspire greater engagement.

The single most important long-term project India can undertake in Central Asia is the INSTC. This trade corridor is not dependent on just hydrocarbons for its profitability but also minerals, produce, and manufactured goods. India’s PM-Elect has campaigned aggressively on infrastructural development within India. India undoubtedly has the skills required to build the INSTC but has been lacking the political will to do so. With Iran becoming less of an international pariah, Modi only needs the political will to expand his infrastructural vision to India’s near abroad for the benefit of all concerned.

PM Elect Modi has suggested that India’s foreign policy will be intertwined with trade and focus more on the immediate neighbourhood such as SAARC, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea under him. He has prioritised infrastructural development within India as well as with important trading partners such as Burma. Central Asia also fits comfortably within Modi’s rubric of a co-prosperity sphere for the region and will enhance the stability and security in Central and South Asia. All that is required now is for Modi to “Look North.”


This post appeared in the June 2014 issue of the Diplomatist.

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The Loss of India’s Near Abroad

07 Sat Dec 2013

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Central Asia, India, South Asia

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Afghanistan, Ashgabat, Astana, Bishkek, Central Asia, Chabahar, China, Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, Dushanbe, East Turkistan Islamic Movement, India, INSTC, International North-South Trade Corridor, Iran, Karshi-Khanabad, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Manas, New Silk Road, Russia, SCO, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Tajikistan, Tashkent, Turkmenistan, Uighur, United States, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang

Central Asia does not feature in the news much, and indeed, why would it when surrounded by far more happening regions? To its south lies the war in Afghanistan, the flames of Islamism in Pakistan, and a nuclear hot zone; a little to the west is Iran and its nuclear programme; of late, even the Caucasus has been in the limelight, torn as it is between Russia and the European Union; to the north is Russia, still attempting to stem the bleed-out of its power from its days as the Soviet Union; and to its east is China, flexing its military muscle everywhere from the East China Sea to Aksai Chin.

Central Asia and the CaucasusCentral Asia, once called the Eurasian Balkans by Zbigniew Brzezinski, is at once unstable, corrupt, dangerous, unfathomably rich in mineral wealth, strategically located, a grand prize in the new Great Game, and most importantly for Delhi, in its near abroad and slipping away. Like many others, India has enjoyed free-riding on a global security commons founded initially upon the balance of power between the Soviet Union and the United States and later, as the Cold War ended, upon a US strength of arms. However, that strength was hardly felt in Central Asia and whatever little of it existed is on its way out by the middle of next year.

As the United States prepares to pull out of Afghanistan, Tajikistan is worried about the potential overflow of terrorism from across its southern border. Due to ethnic kinship and the highly profitable narcotics trade, Afghanistan’s problems have always drawn in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan’s northern neighbour, Kyrgyzstan, has already been through two revolutions in 2005 and 2010, and is worried of jihadists freed from fighting in Afghanistan or returning from Syria to foment trouble at home. Terrorists from groups such as the Hizb-ul-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have been arrested on several occasions in the past few years and are known to have received special training from secret al-Qa’ida camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given the fractious nature of inter-clan relations, any Central Asian republic is vulnerable to instability and sudden waves of domestic terrorism as Kazakhstan experienced in 2011.

Poor relations between the five countries makes matters worse; Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan vie with each other to be primus inter pares in Central Asia, all the while forgetting the Russian bear; Uzbekistan also contests territory with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Fergana Valley, and while the latter upper riparian states are considering hydroelectric power projects (Kambarata and Rogun) which would starve the former of water, Uzbekistan has a habit of switching off gas supplies and closing borders with its eastern neighbours.

Russia’s influence over Central Asia is undeniable, not just historically but also economically. Some 29% of Kyrgyz and 47% of Tajik gross domestic product comes from remittances of their migrant labourers from Russia, and an easy way for Moscow to cajole Bishkek or Dushanbe to seeing its point of view is to float the idea of requiring visas for Central Asians. In fact, Russia has even persuaded Kyrgyzstan to join a customs union which carries little benefits for the Central Asian country given that China accounts for about 50% of its trade and Russia only 17%.

In addition, Moscow’s military aid and training to the region persuades the Central Asian capitals to stay away from entanglements with foreign powers. Not only has the US lease of Manas not been renewed, it was asked to leave Karshi-Khanabad in Uzbekistan after it criticised a massacre of civilians in Andijan in 2005. In the meantime, Moscow has signed a treaty with Dushanbe that will see Russian troops on Tajik soil until 2042.

Until recently, China was content with taking a back seat in the Central Asian Great Game. However, China’s insatiable hunger for energy and resources has made it take note of its western neighbours. Furthermore, unrest in its own Xinjiang province necessitates Beijing’s interest in maintaining a calm Central Asia. The major difference between China and the other powers, however, is that Chinese entry is backed by billions of dollars in aid. Hillary Clinton voiced the idea of a New Silk Road in a speech in Madras in 2011, an “international web and network of economic and transit connections” that would link South and Central Asia to the West via Afghanistan, but little has come of it. China, on the other hand, has invested tens of billions of dollars in road, rail, and pipeline projects, all linking Central Asia to China. Given the economic crunch, stingy Russian aid, and Central Asia slipping down the United States’ priority list, Beijing’s no-strings-attached cash transfusion is very welcome.

In 2000, China launched the Great Western Development Plan in 2000, which has made Xinjiang a vital trade and energy corridor along the New Silk Road. Through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as well as bilateral agreements, China has already invested over $30 billion in Kazakhstan, including its Kashagan oil field, the world’s largest discovery of oil in the last 30 years, and the purchase of MangistauMunaiGas. Beijing has also signed a $15 billion deal with Uzbekistan for oil, gas, and uranium, and it has started production at Galkynysh in Turkmenistan, the world’s second-largest gasfield. Beijing has also lent Ashgabat $4 billion to develop the gasfield at South Yolotan and extended $10 billion to the whole region during the international economic recession through the SCO. In 2012, China’s annual trade with Central Asia stood at $46 billion.

China’s growing clout in Central Asia comes at Russia’s expense, but Moscow and Beijing need each other too – the Kremlin wishes to entice some of China’s wealth into the Russian economy while Beijing realises Russia’s value on the international stage. After all, a reverse Russo-American rapprochement 40 years after Richard Nixon came to China would not do. Beijing views Central Asia as very much within its sphere of influence, its zhoubian, though it allows the perception of Russian control. China and Russia also have common problems – their wariness of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, and Islamic extremism in the region. China is particularly worried of Uighur separatists in Xinjiang and their  over half a million ethnic brethren across the border. For these reasons, the two giants have managed to tango together well in Central Asia.

Interestingly, despite the enormous flow of investments from Beijing, there is very little trust of its motives among the Central Asian republics. The Chinese practice of using its own labour force, for example, has not eased tensions with local communities who have family working in Russia. In addition, many think it is only a matter of time before Chinese immigrant workers settle in the Central Asian republics and take away more jobs. China’s brutal repression of the Uighur in Xinjiang has not gone unnoticed, nor has its behaviour along its borders with other states; it is unlikely that Kazakhstan, Tajikstan, or Kyrgyzstan will soon forget that they ceded land to China to maintain the peace, particularly when the ensuing protests removed the Kyrgyz president from office. Last year, Kanat Ibragimov, a Kazakh performance artist, symbolically decapitated a toy panda to protest against Chinese expansionism into his country. Despite Russia’s militarily dominant position via the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, fears of Chinese expansionism pervade the region.

In this climate, India’s entry into Central Asia appears almost welcome. Not only is the economic and strategic significance of Central Asia to India difficult to overestimate, the region is Delhi’s near abroad too – a flight from India to the farthest point in Central Asia takes no more than three hours. Yet the South Asian country has barely made a mark, its annual trade of $700 million with the five republics vastly overshadowed by its northeastern rival. In the last couple of years alone, Russia has blocked India from obtaining a military base in Kyrgyzstan and renewing the lease on Ayni in Tajikistan, while China has pipped India in the competition for the Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan and the Dauletabad gasfield in Turkmenistan.

Like Clinton’s speech, Delhi has been tall on words but short on action. South Block’s Connect Central Asia initiative envisions engagement across a wide spectrum, from education, medicine, tourism, energy, and agriculture, to archaeology, security, transportation, construction, and e-networks. Yet there has been little focus on short-term projects that would start yielding results immediately. India had hoped to establish an International North-South Trade Corridor connecting South Asia to Europe by road, ship, rail, and pipeline via Central Asia and the Caucasus, but nothing has materialised yet. In fact, it looks like China has supplanted India yet again, its New Silk Road already connecting the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea.

The perception in Central Asia is that not only are Indian investments paltry compared to Chinese projects, but India is extremely slow in its delivery mechanism. India’s political dillydallying and sluggish bureaucracy has put in doubt the country’s seriousness and ability to be a reliable partner in Asia and elsewhere. However, one reason India has not been able to engage fully with Central Asia is lack of access; China shares a border with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, but India is separated by difficult terrain through Pakistan and Afghanistan. In fact, Several Indian companies have refrained from doing business with Central Asia only due to the high cost of logistics.

India’s entire Central Asian strategy hinges on Chabahar, a port in Iran that Delhi was supposed to develop but has been dragging its feet on in fear of US and European sanctions. The connection of Bombay to Chabahar via ship and road, rail, and pipeline from Chabahar to Bamiyan in Afghanistan by way of Zaranj and Delaram, and to Bandar-e Anzali on the Caspian Sea will drastically cut the time and cost of transporting goods from Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia to India. The project has support from several countries, not the least of which are Iran, Russia, Armenia, Afghanistan, the five Central Asian states, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Belarus, and Syria. Beyond transportation, countries along the route must come up with mechanisms to decide pricing, legal issues, banking and procedure before the INSTC can come to fruition.

India’s greatest advantage in Central Asia is that the same logistical difficulties that prevent it from a fuller engagement with the region also make it a safer and more trustworthy partner. India’s goals in Afghanistan and its own concern regarding Chinese expansionism makes India a welcome partner in Ashgabat, Astana, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent. Washington is also likely to smile upon increased trade between Central Asia and India and Europe as it would balance Russia and China in the region and avoid a Chinese monopoly over Central Asian resources.

It is unclear why Delhi does not pursue its plans in Central Asia more forcefully. It has refused to equip the Afghan army, put the development of Chabahar in cold storage, and slunk away after it was bettered by Russia and China in Central Asia. If India continues at this pace, it will find itself hemmed in on all sides and fighting for scraps even in its own backyard.


This post appeared on Daily News & Analysis on December 13, 2013.

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A Long Road To Normalisation

29 Fri Nov 2013

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Iran, Middle East, Nuclear

≈ Comments Off on A Long Road To Normalisation

Tags

Afghanistan, Chabahar, E3+3, India, Interim Nuclear Agreement, Iran, Israel, KRG, Kurdistan, New Silk Road, nuclear, oil, Pakistan, Periphery Doctrine, Saudi Arabia, Shia, Syria, Turkey, United States, Zero Problem

News of the Interim Nuclear Agreement with Iran has created a flurry of activity across the world – Boeing is digging through its stores for upgrades to Iran’s antiquated fleet of passenger planes, Renault is gearing up for potential exports to Iran, India has woken up to an opportunity to increase its strategic clout in South Asia, Turkey’s banks are raring to manage Tehran’s financial transactions, and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been put on alert for increased oil production from Iran. There are even murmurs about a New Silk Road. Yet on the military end, they is speculation about an Israel-Saudi alliance against Tehran.

Much of this is overly optimistic speculation and there will be little movement on most of these fronts over the first half of 2014 when the E3+3 and Iran will be busy trying to negotiate a permanent understanding on Iran’s nuclear programme. In fact, even a comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear question will hardly result in the tectonic shifts everyone envisions and certainly not with the speed everyone predicts. Iran’s return to the mainstream is likely to be slow and though its impact on the region could be significant, will proceed at a more moderated pace than suggested.

The most critical change, from Tehran’s perspective, must come in the oil sector. Oil will remain Iran’s bread and butter in the short term until other sectors of its economy can recover from the decades of sanctions. The Islamic Republic must be able to produce and sell as much oil as it pleases, and it must be able to conduct secure financial transactions to receive payment for its mineral resource. However, it is not so easy to ramp up oil production, and Iran’s decrepit oil machinery and infrastructure cannot handle any sudden increase. Iran desperately needs help to build new oil rigs and upgrade or repair old ones before it can sustain a high output of oil.

Tehran is not looking East

Tehran’s gas pipeline east faces other hurdles – historical differences between India and Pakistan act as a dampener on Indian enthusiasm for the project, and though the pipeline may still go ahead between Iran and Pakistan, the real prize is India’s burgeoning economy and its insatiable hunger for energy. Projections for that economic boom must wait until India and Pakistan come to an understanding or the security of the pipeline and India’s energy source is assured.

India has also refused to move quickly on developing Chabahar for fear of having its companies sanctioned by the United States and the European Union. Even if the removal of sanctions would push Delhi to finally begin moving quickly on Chabahar, the expansion of the port and connecting it by railway, road, and pipeline – at least to Afghanistan if not Central Asia – will take a few years. In addition, such plans will undoubtedly meet with resistance from several neighbours – Pakistan would view Indian influence so close to its western border with concern; if the Central Asian republics could be persuaded to participate in connecting their oil & gas reserves to Chabahar as well as to China, Russia would resent its waning influence over the former Soviet republics. Furthermore, any pipeline, road, or railway heading north from Chabahar will be in some of the most militant-rich terrain in the world.

Another factor that could slow Iran’s recovery is that a lot of Tehran’s money is trapped in rupee deposits in India, renminbis in China, and other less desirable currencies. This is because the US-EU sanctions cut Iran off from the international financial system completely – even accessing one’s US bank account online from Iran would lead to its suspension until one personally went into a US branch again. The non-convertibility of many of the currencies Iran holds forces them to buy from the specific countries, hindering Tehran’s ability to purchase necessary goods freely. As one business man complained, “How much basmati can we buy?” The sudden depreciation of the rupee has also lost Iran about 12% of its oil earnings from India. Iran’s warmth towards its eastern allies is born out of economic necessity than any ideological or other concurrence of views. As an Iranian engineer said of his Chinese partners, “I think the sanctions gave them the ability to act however they wanted with us.” Indeed, with allies like these, who needs enemies?

The United States probably hopes that the thawing of relations with Iran will help its retreat from Afghanistan. This could be achieved sooner than most other goals. It is well within Iran’s capability to make the Western extraction difficult, and most importantly for the United States, Pakistan will no longer have NATO at its mercy. However, it is hard to predict the ramifications upon Pakistan of the loss of its pivotal role in US operations in Central Asia. With anti-American sentiment strong in the population and the increasing power of Islamists, not to mention the questionable safety of its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan may even take a turn for the worse without a US presence in the region. Tehran does not favour a US presence in the neighbourhood, but an Afghanistan and Pakistan out of a Wild, Wild West scenario must keep the clerics up at night.

The Neighbourhood

Within the Middle East, many hope that resolving the Iranian issue is a first step to ending the civil war in Syria and perhaps gaining some control over the Hezbollah in the Occupied Territories in Israel. These fantasies are also unlikely to pan out as beautifully as they are imagined. If Tehran abandoned Bashar al-Assad to the Gulf-funded Salafi jihadists and their Western patrons, not only will it undermine confidence in Iran’s support in the region but also create a hostile state on the Islamic Republic’s doorstep. Tehran’s cooperation on the Syrian bloodbath will hardly result in the ideal outcome the West desires and the issue of a future Syrian state and Assad may become yet another splinter between the United States and the Gulf states.

Next door to Iran, the Kurdish Regional Government has been developing ties with Turkey and establishing its own international credentials in matters involving the Kurds in Syria, international investment in the Kurdish autonomous province, and oil trade. An Iran that is not an international pariah will open doors to Hewlêr’s diversification of its trade and allow its energy resources access to the Persian Gulf as well as the presently planned route to the Mediterranean via Turkey. The KRG will hardly rush with the large investments needed in infrastructure for the pipelines; Hewlêr will want to be convinced of the viability of trade with Iran and that the clerics will keep their word on nuclear safeguards.

The Israeli Connection

An interesting development has been the much mentioned Israeli-Saudi alliance against Iran. If the United States achieves a rapprochement with Iran, many observers believe that it will be over Israeli and Saudi concerns and this would push the two governments into an unlikely partnership. This is an extremely simplistic, if not naïve, view of geopolitics. For one, Israel and Saudi Arabia are still are still locked in mortal combat over desired outcomes in Syria and Palestine, and there are several symbolic as well as strategic reasons Riyadh and Jerusalem will not drift too close. At best, they might temporarily walk in the same direction and, perhaps, tangle their little fingers. It will be impossible to whitewash over the rhetoric of Jewish/Zionist-Islamic divide that has been so carefully cultivated since 1948 any time soon.

Considering the Israel-Iran stand-off, Trita Parsi has convincingly argued in Treacherous Alliance that both Israel and Iran are shrewd and pragmatic political operators who have not let ideology interfere with their national interests; Israel supplied Iran with weapons during the Iran-Iraq War despite the anti-Israel tirade from the imams in Qom. In fact, many of Iran’s security and policy goals show a continuity, not a break, with Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s regime. If Israel can be persuaded of the effectiveness of the nuclear safeguards on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – without which there would be no deal in the first place – its strategists have always argued for what they called a Periphery Doctrine. Essentially, this doctrine argued that as non-Arab states – two and a half of them are even democracies – Iran, Turkey, and Israel act as natural bulwarks against their mutual rivals. Turkey’s place in that club has become murky with the failure of Ankara’s recent Zero Problem foreign policy initiative, but there is little reason for eternal enmity between Tehran and Jerusalem.

Shia Living in a Sunni World

Perhaps counter-intuitively, international normalisation of ties with Iran causes more problems for Saudi Arabia than Israel. Iran’s increased influence in the region could easily translate to Tehran emerging as a lightening rod for the disaffected Shia minority from Pakistan to Bahrain, Yemen, Lebanon, Egypt and even the Kingdom itself. The fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the increasing political presence of Iraq’s Shia population has given Iran some breathing space in its neighbourhood. If pilgrimage numbers are anything to judge potential political ties by, Najaf has seen more visitors annually since 2009 than either Mecca or Medina.

Recent media reports suggest that ties between Iran and Turkey have been getting warmer and that the two countries are even sharing intelligence on matters of mutual concern. However, though both have shared concerns about Kurdish nationalism in the past, the major question mark in the near future is Syria. Ankara has been lukewarm in its support of the rebels against Assad since any semblance of a secular opposition gave way to Salafists, but neither is it likely to be comfortable with yet another neighbour within Iran’s sphere of influence. Ankara’s failure in Egypt and Syria may make it more open to Iranian overtures, but that remains to be seen.

A Slow Normalisation on the Cards

Iran’s leaders have posited their nation to be a golden key that could open up the entire Middle East. That honour, in my opinion, will go to an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Iran today presents a problem for the West, no doubt, and settling the nuclear issue will bring relief to both sides. Yet over three decades of demonising, scheming, and aiding hostile proxies will hardly go away in a few months. To put things in an Indian perspective, friendly Iran-US relations within the decade would be like expecting India and Pakistan to overcome their historical mistrust and hatred overnight just because Islamabad decided to extradite terrorists India has been demanding. Resentment between the United States and Iran has gone deeper than the political and seeped into public opinion as well, albeit many hope that relations will improve. A rapid turnabout of 370 million minds is no easy task, but that is why we read Lao Tzu.

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