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Chaturanga

~ statecraft, strategy, society, and Σοφíα

Chaturanga

Tag Archives: non-proliferation

A Foreign Policy for Mr. Modi

14 Fri Feb 2014

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in India, Opinion and Response, South Asia

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Anglosphere, Australia, Brazil, China, energy, European Union, foreign policy, France, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Missile Technology Control Regime, MTCR, Narendra Modi, non-proliferation, Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, nuclear, oil, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United States

Foreign policy seldom occupies an important position in political agenda during electoral campaigns, and 2014 in India is hardly any different. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate has, however, evoked a little more interest from various sections. One reason for this abnormal curiosity is that anything Narendra Modi does attracts attention. Another reason is that the refusal by the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States to grant Modi a diplomatic visa because of his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots makes him an even more interesting prime ministerial candidate, especially given his apparent popularity with large swathes of the Indian people. Conversely, the Gujarat chief minister has enjoyed much success in his foreign visits to China, Japan, and Singapore.

Modi himself has said little about the shape his foreign policy would take but his actions as Chief Minister belie a strong emphasis on trade, particularly with Asia and the countries of the Indian Ocean rim. Yet commercial links alone do not dictate foreign relations and in this era of the global village, Modi must think on several interconnected factors that will affect the security and esteem of India.

Structural issues

The making and study of foreign policy is beset with difficulties at several levels. First, there are structural issues – despite scores of its own languages, India is predominantly an English-speaking state and moves in Anglophone circles. The dominant views in this system are set by the United States and to a lesser extent, Britain. This is largely because of the presence of hundreds of well-staffed and well-funded think tanks who see the world through Anglophone eyes. Issues such as non-proliferation, global warming, and terrorism and defined, unchallenged, by American interests. Multilingual historians are often surprised by the diversity of debate in other languages even when there is broad national consensus.

The Anglophone discourse is a result not of some master conspiracy but of a failure to empathise with rationalities other than one’s own. India’s best response to the present situation would be to open its own national archives to scholarly scrutiny and encourage its universities to produce policy experts in the plethora of fields governments usually interfere in. A narrative informed by the history of Indian policy-making is the first step in generating superior inputs to current policy makers.

A second challenge India faces in its international relations is infrastructure – the lack of energy, transportation, public safety, health, and a sound legal system make the country not immediately attractive to foreign investment. It is telling that an Egypt still recovering from the turmoil of the Arab Spring saw more tourists in 2013 than India did. Though infrastructure does not strictly fall in the realm of external affairs, it makes an enormous difference in attracting valuable partners and forming strong ties with them.

A third question Modi must ponder on is the structure of India’s military, the stick or hard power of foreign policy. What sort of force structure is required for the nature of tomorrow’s conflicts? With the proliferation of nuclear weapons in South Asia, it is unlikely that India’s neighbours will engage in 20th century style conflicts over land with India; rather, they’ll rely on asymmetric warfare and/or well-trained fast and mobile units with heavy firepower, good lines of communication, and a high degree of stealth. India will need to be able to deploy force in a variety of theatres – maritime anti-piracy operations, mountainous border engagements, thrusts across the desert, and others.

Remedying these fundamental deficiencies will give India a stronger hand, despite its understaffed Foreign Service, with which to project its views and defend its interests in the international community.

Central & South Asia

A state’s immediate neighbours are always of the greatest concern; India has seen its influence slip considerably in recent years, or at least, has had its impotence exposed. With smaller states who can pose no military threat on their own like the Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, India must be generous in its development aid and facilitate closer ties via education, cultural exchanges, and easier travel regulations. However, India must be careful to avoid the tail wagging the dog – preferential treatment must be reciprocated by good faith. Modi must see to it that Indian officials do not come off as overbearing and condescending to the neighbourhood as they have been accused of in the past and walk that fine line between arrogant regional power and regional locus of power.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan will shift some of the burden of keeping the Central Asian country free from Taliban rule onto India. It is more logical for Afghans to fight the Taliban for their own country than for India to follow in the erroneous footsteps of imperial Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States. India must act in concert with other regional powers with similar interests – Russia and Iran – to help Afghanistan repel the Taliban and rebuild its society and economy. Any less of a commitment would irredeemably jeopardise Indian economic and security interests. The challenge would be to strangle the Taliban’s flow of aid from Pakistan. Modi must keep international attention and condemnation on Pakistan’s aid to the Islamists in Afghanistan while cobbling together a coalition to provide military and financial aid to the non-theocratic forces in Kabul.

Iran can be another important regional partner for India. Both countries have somewhat similar interests in Afghanistan, and Iran is also the last stop on the proposed International North-South Trade Corridor that would connect the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea and serve Turkey, the Caucasus, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Iran would be a vital partner in this project as well as in providing security to Afghanistan against the Taliban. Although Iran does not look to India as a major economic partner, there are, nonetheless, several projects of bilateral interest India must push to develop quickly. Among these are the much talked about development of Chabahar port, its attendant road, rail, and pipeline infrastructure, and oil & gas pipelines between the two countries. Modi must put Iran towards the top of his foreign policy agenda not only to capture a new, post-sanctions Iranian market but for the ripple effect the INSTC can have for trade in the region.

Over the years, Pakistan has elevated itself from a nuisance to a threat with its support of terrorism from behind its nuclear shield. Endless summits have failed to silence the guns in Kashmir, let alone bring peace to the region. In fact, all evidence still points to support of terrorist cells by various arms of the Pakistani government, and men like Malik Ishaq and Hafiz Saeed roam free. At this low juncture, one option left to Modi is to suspend talks and downgrade diplomatic relations to the consular level. In the past, India has shown itself to be too willing to talk regardless of provocations and dishonoured commitments by the other side. A concerted effort to highlight internationally Pakistan’s links to terrorism must be mounted. India must try to throttle international aid to Pakistan or affix conditions that demand aid be sanitised from contact with terrorism via sub-contractors, finance, labour, etc. Any talks that do take place between the two states must be only via a third party. Modi must be bold – but not reckless – and explore other strategies to put pressure on Islamabad, be it via Afghanistan, Balochistan, or along the LoC.

The Great Powers

China has always been India’s bête noire since the Communists seized power in 1949 and annexed Tibet in 1950. India’s nuclear and rocket programmes took on a military dimension solely to deter China’s ambitions south of the Himalayas and Delhi’s quest for the nuclear triad was to assure Beijing that it had second strike capability. The irony will not be missed when one notes that China is also India’s largest trading partner today. This should not lead to an underestimation of the threat China poses to India – it has helped Pakistan acquire nuclear weapons, surrounds India with its string of pearls, blocked India from gaining membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, prevented India from being raised to a permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council, supports insurgencies against India, claims Indian territory to this day, maintains military pressure along the LAC, and has been a negative influence on any international aid flowing towards the development of India’s North East.

A muscular policy against China is not possible at India’s present capability levels. Furthermore, attacking trade between the two countries would only make the Indian consumer suffer by having to pay more for goods. Modi must strengthen trade with India’s northeastern neighbour as he has repeatedly suggested whilst keeping an eye on the balance of trade. China must be banned from core sectors of the economy such as telecom and infrastructure in sensitive areas. If India wants to make its position on Tibet ambiguous again and invite the Dalai Lama to Race Course Road or express sympathy for the plight of the Uighurs, it would only reflect China’s position on Kashmir. Simultaneously, India must strengthen ties with Southeast Asia via universities, road, rail and air links, and trade; this, however, will not be easy as Chinese aid far surpasses anything India can muster due to its superior economy. Nevertheless, Southeast Asia has for long sought an Indian alternative to Chinese hegemony and will welcome it if provided. In essence, Modi must deliver on India’s much-hyped but insubstantive Look East Policy.

Outside India’s immediate mandala, India’s relationship with Russia and the United States are of great importance to it. Despite recent purchases of big-ticket items from France and the United States, over 70% of Indian military hardware is still sourced from Russia and the situation is unlikely to change in the near future. Moscow has concerns regarding US intentions in what has traditionally been the Russian sphere of influence; NATO expansion eastwards (Georgia) and US ballistic missile defence stations in Poland and the Ukraine have forced Russia to tolerate rising Chinese power on its borders and in its eastern peripheries. Modi must assure Russia that India’s apparent drift towards the United States is not directed at it but other regional aspirants for hegemony. India must stress common concerns such as Chinese belligerence, a volatile Afghanistan, rising costs of defence research and development, and US intervention in areas of mutual concern. Modi must also push for greater access to Russian markets for Indian companies.

India’s ties with the United States have been in the doldrums since the end of the George W Bush administration. Even then, arguably, the optimism was felt more in Washington than in Delhi which did little to reciprocate. India’s difficult process in ratifying the Indo-US nuclear deal, the nuclear civil liability law [link] it enacted, and the Non-Alignment 2.0 document sources close to the government produced gave the United States pause in its embrace of India. Similarly, the United States’ continued assistance to Pakistan, its policy in Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria, and its ambiguous position on China give India little reason to rush into the US’ embrace. The recent distraction over the mistreatment by the United States of Indian Acting Consul in New York, Devyani Khobragade, may have soured public opinion but left common interests unchanged.

Despite the many disagreements the estranged democracies have, Modi must remember that India is not “looking for a groom for its daughter.” India must realise that the United States will not commit to Asia without a reliable partner; furthermore, US concerns about the end use or theft of its technology are as valid as Indian concerns over end-users of the Brahmos missile (if they are ever exported). Modi must promote trade but also push for more transfer of technology, explore joint development and production of defence items, yet ensure that US interpretation of intellectual property law does not put India at a perennial disadvantage. Intelligence sharing, joint training and exercises, energy, advanced materials, nuclear research, space exploration, and environmental protection are just some of the areas where Indian and US interests converge. A significantly more substantial relationship is possible and of greater value to India if it could modify its nuclear civil liabilities law and jettison flawed doctrines such as non-alignment. A lesson India can emulate from its northeastern neighbour is that the more valuable a partner India becomes to the United States, the more influence it will have on US policies in Asia. Modi cannot allow himself to be distracted by public relations snafus and trivia and push forward to forge what may well be India’s most important relation of the first half of the 21st century.

Partners

Less powerful than Russia or the United States but no less valuable to India as partners are France, Israel, and Japan. The lack of a large power disparity may even psychologically pave the way for more stable partnerships. France is one of the few countries that has rarely been critical of India, even in the aftermath of the Pokhran nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998. In fact, the Indo-US nuclear deal was the culmination of a French idea to bring India into the nuclear fold. Despite the struggling negotiations over India’s purchase of the Dassault Rafale, the two countries are mutually compatible in several areas such as nuclear energy, infrastructure, chemicals, and telecommunications. Most importantly, both France and India seek a larger role in global affairs today – the former seeks to regain its earlier grandeur and the latter to acquire it anew. Modi must capitalise on this psychological dynamic to forge not just a partnership with France but also a new multipolar world order.

Japan can be India’s most reliable ally in Asia to balance China. Modi is already known for the importance he gives relations with Japan and this must be expanded even more. Given Japan’s reluctance to enter into the arms market or enter into civilian nuclear cooperation with India just yet, Modi must engage with Japanese parliamentarians across the political spectrum to gain their confidence. The mutual benefits of close ties, if achieved, are already clear to all and business and cultural exchange will foster greater trust at more levels between the two peoples. Modi’s task here is less diplomatic and more social and cultural – perhaps cold balance of power calculations would be better received if couched in the language of shared values, threats, and goals.

For decades, relations between Israel and India were clandestine at best because of Delhi’s belief that the Arab World would prove a moderating influence on its Islamic brothers in South Asia. However, the evolving political realities of the Arab-Israeli struggle allowed India to establish diplomatic relations with Israel by 1992. The two countries have little in common but exchanges today include military hardware, intelligence sharing, and agricultural know-how. Despite differences in their views on Iran and China, the threat of international Islamic terror brings Jerusalem and Delhi closer to each other. Modi can use this as a springboard to encourage greater joint development of military systems; in a cost-sensitive world, indigenous hardware with export potential should interest both parties. After the loss of Iran, Israel may look to India in a revival of its periphery doctrine.

If there is any psychological value in being one of the few countries in the world where Jews have never been persecuted, Modi can leverage that to develop tourism, agriculture, medical research, and educational ties. Most people know the tiny Levantine country for terrorism and wars but Israel has a strong knowledge economy with many gifted scientists, doctors, and engineers who work on projects that can be of great interest to India such as electric cars and desalination. Modi must see Israel other than through a narrow security prism and build relations at a societal level.

Reaching Out To The Rest

India obviously wants stellar relations with all countries in the world and would like to engage in commerce with as many as possible. Australia is fast emerging as a major supplier of energy to India and may be a partner in security for the Indian Ocean Region. Africa presents a massive opportunity for Indian business houses in raw materials, agriculture, education, and infrastructure. However, South America has received little attention in Indian thinking despite the presence of another BRICS member. Modi must explore opportunities in this far-flung land and make India’s reach global. An Indian alternative to Chinese aid and investments in international markets will prevent the balance of power from becoming too skewed in China’s favour while opening more and more countries to Indian products, services, and ideas.

*        *        *

Foreign policy has never been so important in independent India’s history except perhaps during the early days of the Cold War. India needs the international community for security, trade, and aid. The rise of China has brought a Cold War upon India’s doorstep – already India is competing with China in Africa and Southeast Asia for resources and influence – and meaningful ties with similarly minded countries will be of mutual benefit. India has been able to plod along at a lethargic pace until now because it was not at the forefront of international developments. Now, as one of the largest economies and a country directly threatened by the rise of a hostile neighbour, India can no longer afford such nonchalance. Modi’s foreign policy must measure up to his domestic vision and captivate a new generation of Indians; it must be ambitious in its goals, wide in its scope, measured in its formulation, and assertive in its implementation. As the Good Book tells us, where there is no vision, the people perish (Míshlê 29:18).


This post appeared on Gateway House on February 26, 2014.

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Peace In Our Times?

24 Sun Nov 2013

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in Iran, Middle East, Nuclear

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

123 Agreement, AEOI, Arak, Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, Britain, Bushehr, China, enrichment, Fordow, France, Geneva, Germany, Iran, Natanz, non-proliferation, Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, nuclear, P5+1, Parchin, plutonium, reprocessing, Resolution 1696, Resolution 1737, Russia, Tehran Research Reactor, TRR, United Nations Security Council, United States, UNSC, uranium

Sunday morning brought with it news that a major breakthrough had been achieved in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – United States, France, Russia, Britain, China – and Germany, Iran’s key trading partner), and that an interim agreement had been reached. Temporarily, at least, the war drums had been silenced.

The deal has its critics on both sides of the fence – Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, did not make matters easy with his outbursts (though he has hailed the deal after the fact), nor do Iran hawks in the US Congress with talk of additional sanctions. In that sense, many suspect that it will be harder for US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to sell the deal to the more conservative elements in their own countries than to each other. Saudi and Israeli opposition to the deal as an outline emerged after last week’s talks in Geneva has also been consistent and vocal. Unsurprisingly, the Iranian announcement of the interim agreement came together with the usual symbolic defiance – the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran declared its plans to construct two more power reactors at Bushehr.

The interim deal is, all things considered, a fair one; Iran receives some sanctions relief and the P5+1 are assured that Iran does not continue to inch closer towards nuclear weaponisation. The deal is set to expire after six months, giving time for negotiators to hammer out the terms and conditions for the next phase of a complete resolution to the Iranian nuclear question.

Towards the P5+1’s non-proliferation goals, the deal promises to:

  • halt enrichment at 5% and dilute all higher-enriched material to below that level
  • not add or upgrade centrifuges and limit production to repairs only
  • not increase stockpile of 3.5% enriched uranium
  • not commission or fuel the Arak heavy water reactor
  • halt fuel assembly for Arak and not install additional components to the reactor
  • not transfer heavy water or fuel to reactor site
  • not construct a reprocessing plant

In effect, these measures shut down Iran’s potential plutonium path to a nuclear weapon as well as severely curtail its uranium enrichment. Even if talks were to fall apart in a few months, Iran’s breakout time will have been substantially increased.

Towards the P5+1’s verification goals, the deal promises to:

  • provide the IAEA access to centrifuge and rotor assembly and storage facilities
  • provide the IAEA access to uranium mines and mills
  • provide the IAEA with Arak reactor designs
  • install surveillance cameras at Natanz and Fordow and provide daily access
  • provide frequent access to the Arak reactor

The increased transparency of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, not to mention centrifuges, mines, mills, and storage facilities, make it very difficult for Iran to develop nuclear weapons on the sly. If these conditions are implemented and made permanent, Iran would effectively need an entire clandestine, parallel nuclear programme to bypass international scrutiny – the possibility of which is next to nil.

In return for the non-proliferation and verification Iran has agreed to, the country will be granted temporary, limited, relief totalling approximately $7 billion in the form of:

  • no new sanctions during the period of the deal
  • suspension of sanctions on gold, precious metals, petrochemicals, and auto sector to the tune of $1.5 billion
  • payment in installments, totalling $4.2 billion, from the sale of Iranian oil at present levels
  • unfreezing of $400 million for Iranian government tuition assistance to its international students
  • safety-related repairs of Iranian airlines

It is important to note that these measures will remain active for only a fixed period – after that, unless extended, Iran will again come under sanctions. This gives P5+1 negotiators time to discuss the complex issues involved with their Iranian counterparts without being accused at home of allowing Iran to creep up to the bomb. It also shows Iranian negotiators that P5+1 demands to halt the Iranian nuclear programme during talks is not a backdoor to shutting down the programme permanently if negotiations drag on endlessly.

Second, Iran receives limited relief from sanctions – the bulk of the sanctions architecture remains in place and only a tiny spigot is loosened to allow Tehran access to its own funds. Not only is the time period for relief small, the amount of relief is also small and not external to Iran’s revenue stream.

A point of concern is that the interim deal has already been interpreted differently by the two sides. Furthermore, the text of the Interim Nuclear Agreement and the US State Department’s Fact Sheet: First Step Understandings Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program, bear some discrepancies. A document of this import would certainly have gone through lawyers and translators to eliminate any grounds for misunderstanding. Yet, there exist some discrepancies with potentially enormous consequences on not only the interim agreement but the future of nuclear negotiations with Iran:

  • the Iranian document mentions that half of the 20% enriched uranium will be retained for fuel fabrication for the Tehran Research Reactor, of which there is no mention in the US document
  • the Iranian document suggests that this is a first step towards a comprehensive solution to the nuclear imbroglio which both parties will conclude within one year of this agreement but the US document sets the countdown at six months without mention of possibility of renewal
  • the Iranian document suggests that the final agreement would “[i]nvolve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs.” This line is not present in the US text and is of utmost importance in the understanding of this interim agreement.

Many observers are wondering what this deal means beyond its nuclear aspect. For now, there is no ‘beyond’ the nuclear deal. In fact, there are already many doubts about this deal. However, Iran might choose to ignore the question hanging over recognition of its right to enrich uranium and avail of the sanctions relief while insisting on its position during further discussions.

An interesting admission both the Iranian and US releases make is that the complete resolution will have to consider, among other things, UNSC resolutions. Ignoring the final position on Iran’s enrichment rights for now, the interim nuclear agreement allows Tehran, albeit not explicitly, to enrich uranium up to 5%. Does this acceptance violate UNSC Chapter VII Resolutions 1696 and 1737 (legally binding), both of which call for a suspension of Iran’s enrichment activity during negotiations? This may be one reason that Kerry declared that Iran’s enrichment has not been recognised. Were Zarif’s interpretation of the treaty accepted, it would not only recognise Iran’s right to enrich under the Article IV of the NPT but also nullify the ruling of the UNSC resolutions. This is a question for the lawyers, but one solution would be for the UNSC to pass a resolution supporting the interim agreement; another would be to maintain the façade of Kerry’s interpretation until a comprehensive agreement is reached.

If the interim nuclear agreement does not accept Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the P5+1 have given away next to nothing to achieve a temporary halt in Iran’s nuclear march and will gain a better knowledge of the Arak reactor. Seen in this light, the agreement tilts convincingly in favour of the P5+1; after all, $7 billion of relief over six months (or a year) is minuscule in comparison to the $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets globally or the $4 billion per month in lost oil revenue.

If the interim nuclear agreement does recognise Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the additional transparency measures Iran has agreed to will still go a long way in building confidence in Tehran’s intentions. However, Iran will have severely dented the US 123 Agreement Gold Standard and carved out a place in the non-proliferation hierarchy somewhere above non-nuclear weapon states (who have no enrichment and reprocessing rights) and below India (which has military nuclear facilities too). From this perspective, if Iran’s assertions that it does not want nuclear weapons are true, the deal favours Tehran’s unenumerated rights reading of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

There are many questions the interim nuclear deal does not answer, such as research on weaponisation or other questionable facilities like Parchin. Critics will also point out that these safeguards hold true only for facilities discovered or declared and that Iran can continue a secret nuclear weapons project. This, however, would remain true even with full and unrestricted access – if a state really wants a bomb, the diffusion of technology makes it almost impossible to prevent proliferation. Nonetheless, through strict export controls and transparent facilities, it can be made extremely difficult. In any case, these issues, among others, are exactly what the second phase is for. As the saying goes, Rome was not built in a day.

Most importantly, the success of Geneva breaks the psychological indisposition to fruitful negotiations with Iran. If this agreement were to fail in six or twelve months, the P5+1 would have lost nothing; if it leads to further meaningful compromises, then everyone would have gained from this first step. Even those with misgivings about the NPT must concede that Iran has signed the treaty and all negotiations must be based on that fact; this is simply the price Iran has to pay for being party to the NPT. Could this deal have come earlier? Perhaps, but its time had not yet come.

[I have been asked by many what this interim deal means for India. My answer is, not much. India is an attractive trading partner for Iran presently because the sanctions have severely reduced the number of partners. Iran would, no doubt, like to have business relations with India, but if it had to prioritise where to spend its $7 billion in relief, Western markets would the first place Tehran goes shopping. Iran needs technology which India cannot provide, and it needs investment on a scale and at a pace that is inconceivable in the Indian political environment. As a result, Western, Russian, and Chinese markets would be Iran’s first choice.

Additionally, while many fantasise about the political space the Interim Nuclear Deal may open up for India (particularly in Chabahar), such imagination must also counter-balance desires with the fact that Delhi has always been singularly obstinate in not involving itself in the global security commons.

Does this agreement affect India’s relations with Pakistan? No. While the achievement of the interim nuclear agreement certainly does not lack in its power to inspire, the dynamics between Iran and the West are different from those between the subcontinent’s two nuclear rivals. The first relationship has a strong element of coercion – economic sanctions and the threat of military force, while the second relationship has neither the economic nor the military arm-twisting.

If the interim agreement lives up to its promise and delivers a comprehensive solution to the Iranian problem by the end of next year, it can certainly have a major impact on the region. The spillover will not only affect Syria, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, but also India and Pakistan. The removal of sanctions on ties to Iranian petrochemicals, shipbuilding, infrastructure, insurance, and other sectors will allow Delhi to aggressively pursue, if it wishes, the full development of Chabahar port and related projects. This will have a significant impact on trade with Afghanistan and potentially alter the security dynamics in Central Asia. However, Indian firms will have to compete in an open market with other countries unlike the last few years. This is all, however, a very big ‘if’ based on what happens in the next six months.]


This post appeared on Daily News & Analysis on November 25, 2013.

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A Contrived Hyphenation

28 Wed Aug 2013

Posted by Jaideep A. Prabhu in India, Pakistan, South Asia, United States

≈ Comments Off on A Contrived Hyphenation

Tags

China, dehyphenation, India, non-proliferation, Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, nuclear, Pakistan, terrorism, United States

For decades, it has been an article of faith in Washington’s South Asia policy that India and Pakistan form the key rivalrous dyad in the region. By implication, India’s fear of China is misplaced and Delhi’s nuclear programme, its continued development of longer ranged ballistic missiles, and nuclear submarines, antagonises Beijing while hindering reconciliation with Islamabad. The brief gap in such thinking during the George W. Bush administration, when the United States offered India a deal on civilian nuclear cooperation, has since been sealed again.

There are two possibilities this narrative holds sway: one is that the Pakistan lobby in Washington has outmanoeuvred the India hands comprehensively. However tempting it is to believe this given the ineptitude of India’s diplomatic corps, it is unlikely to be the sole or even main reason for the US position. A second more likely reason is that the India-Pakistan dyad narrative trivialises the Indian nuclear programme and lends credence to US non-proliferation objectives.

Soon after independence in South Asia, the United States courted both India and Pakistan. However, Jawaharlal Nehru chose to steer India clear of bloc politics, at least in theory, and refused to be warmer to Washington than to Moscow; his personal fondness for Fabian socialism and public school education may have also repelled him from what he saw as the crass consumer culture of the West. Pakistan had no such qualms and readily embraced, however superficially, the US-led capitalist world. Karachi, then the capital, ingratiated itself into CENTO (1954) and SEATO (1955) hoping they would provide relief against India. Pakistan soon found that the while the United States intended for it to assist with an attack from the rear if Soviet forces were to ever flood south into Iran, Washington had little interest in becoming entangled in South Asia’s fratricide. Despite souring relations between client and patron after Lyndon B. Johnson’s arms embargo during the 1965 India-Pakistan War, the two states have maintained cordial relations except for the last decade of the 20th century.

From India’s perspective, Pakistan was born amidst hostility and in opposition to the idea of India. Outmatched demographically and geographically, it would register no threat had it not received constant US military support, ostensibly not to be used against India! Admittedly, Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons raised its threat perception in Indian eyes, particularly given its ties to terrorism. However, much of Pakistan’s nuclear successes were achieved as the Reagan administration turned a Nelson’s Eye while China supplied Islamabad with designs and fissile material. To Delhi, this reads like the US creating a rival for India where there was none.

The shift in US rhetoric on China is also quite revealing: throughout the late Forties and Fifties until the middle of the Sixties, the United States was convinced that Communist China was a menace to world peace. Successive US presidents tried to persuade Nehru of the danger but he would have none of it in public: it was the heydey of Panchsheel and hindi-chini bhai-bhai, and India had even turned down a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council on grounds that it should be offered to China first. There is, nonetheless, ample evidence to show that the Indian prime minister was indeed concerned about China, particularly after Mao Zedong’s annexation of Tibet in 1950. However, he was confident that his diplomacy could win over Zhou Enlai and Mao, wrongly, as it turned out.

India’s first prime minister didn’t live long after the 1962 Sino-Indian War; he died a few months short of China’s first nuclear test in October 1964. The recent defeat and the shock of China’s test sent India’s leaders fluttering to London and Washington to ask for military aid and a nuclear umbrella. Just before his death, Nehru had allowed U2 reconnaissance flights over Tibet to be based out of Orissa, but such bonhomie quickly faded. In fact, the Indian delegation in 1965 refused to name China as a threat during discussions with the British and Americans – Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Foreign Minister Morarji Desai sought a nuclear umbrella from both the Soviet Union and the United States, preferably from the United Kingdom and France too, against a “general” nuclear threat!

Two things converged in US politics the mid-1960s to India’s disadvantage: the Gilpatric Committee Report (1965) and the beginnings of the US rapprochement with China. The Fifties had been the decade of Atoms for Peace, and in 1961, the US Department of Defence had even suggested giving India a nuclear weapon so that it could test one before China did. This was eventually scuttled by John Galbraith, the US ambassador to India, who declared to Kennedy that Nehru would give another lecture on atomic apartheid. The GCR reversed US nuclear liberalism; suddenly, safeguards and controls became tighter, and the GCR even warned that India would use the Chinese nuclear test as an excuse to pursue its own nuclear weapons programme. By August 1968, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was opened for signatures.

India claims that her 1974 nuclear test at Pokhran was a Peaceful Nuclear Explosive, but Raja Ramanna, a senior scientist in India’s nuclear conclave, announced in a 1997 interview that the test was anything but peaceful. Western analysts refuse to consider this test as a serious anti-China measure for various reasons, chief among them being the slow acquisition of reliable delivery systems and the long lag before weaponisation. These are legitimate points, but can be explained by India’s usual hemming and hawing when it comes to matters of national security. The evidence, however, indicates that in the Lok Sabha, from 1960 to 1974, Pakistan was rarely brought up when the discussion veered to nuclear policy; China, on the other hand, found a frequent mention.

As US relations with China improved, their tolerance for India’s view that China remained a threat declined. China’s economy began to grow rapidly as Deng Xiaoping opened the country to foreign trade, and Bill Clinton saw China as a partner in growth. Interestingly, Henry Kissinger had warned Richard Nixon just before their trip to China in 1972 that the Chinese were not to be trusted and 20 years hence, the US ought to side with Russia against China. George W Bush certainly did not see Beijing as a partner but as a rival and hoped to help India rise to become a global power. Barack Obama falls between the two: he has ordered a US pivot to Asia, but has done little to prop India against China. To be fair, this may partly be India’s own woolly-headedness at play.

Historically, Indian leaders, from Shastri to Manmohan Singh, have always thought it possible to reason with Islamabad because of the shared history and culture between the two states; “Enemy No. 1” remained China. It is difficult not to agree with this assessment considering that China has invaded India, holds Indian territory, claims more Indian territory, has supplied India’s rival with nuclear weapons and missile technology, armed and trained separatist groups in India’s northeast, prevented India’s entry into the UNSC and Nuclear Suppliers Group, and has continued to surround India with its string of pearls.

Thus, US policy towards South Asia has been shaped by a powerful non-proliferation lobby (the Indo-US nuclear deal had to be kept under tight wraps until it was announced), the drastic fluctuations in its relations with China, and an inexplicable fondness for Pakistan, a state that has committed genocide, supported terrorism, and indulged in nuclear proliferation. South Asia is, however, a region of forced dyads – the lesser power trying to equate itself with the greater power in the dyad and claiming all the rights that accompany the greater position. The US can choose to accept these realities on the ground, or continually become frustrated when its theories turn out wrong and its initiatives go nowhere.


This post appeared on Tehelka Blogs on September 02, 2013.

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